It’s a common refrain on Buffalo Rising: “Let’s get a supermarket downtown.” Commenters have suggested a grocery store for Main Place Mall, M&T Bank parking lots, the upper level of the DL&W Terminal, the AM&As Department Store and elsewhere. Wishful thinking. While developers have added 700 residential units downtown over the past decade, and more are planned, it’s not enough to warrant a new grocery store.
There isn’t an agreed upon number of residential units needed to support a full-scale grocery store. A University of Washington study calculated the Seattle region averages 2,500 to 4,800 people per “grocery store.” Data from Food Marketing Institute and Census figures show that there is an average of 8,800 residents per supermarket nationwide. Income, residential density and mobility also play a role.
It should be noted that chain grocery stores in many areas of the country are not nearly as large as WNY’s Tops and Wegmans behemoths. 46,000 sq.ft is the national average while Wegmans’ newest stores are 130,000 sq.ft.
Another rule of thumb is 2.5 to 5 square feet of grocery store selling space per capita. Downtown’s estimated 3,300 residents can support 8,250 to 16,500 sq.ft. of grocery space, about the size of Wegmans’ produce and bakery sections. Include nearby neighborhoods and the market potential increases. So does the inclusion of downtown workers grabbing groceries on their way into work or heading home, workers eating in a full-service store for lunch, and visitors staying in nearby hotels.
Downtown presents a special challenge and stores are nearly never as large as their suburban counterparts. Downtown real estate is expensive, overhead is high and parking is an issue. Considering those factors, a downtown grocery store is likely to be smaller than those in other neighborhoods or on a suburban property.
While Tops and Wegmans have not opened ‘downtown’ stores, grocers elsewhere have created models suitable for urban sites. Trader Joe’s, Safeway, Whole Foods and others all have downtown stores, some on multiple levels with attached, stacked parking. Walmart is planning stand-alone grocery stores and is looking at both city and suburban locations.
Downtown’s current residents aren’t starving. They utilize grocery stores one or more miles away including the Tops on Niagara Street or the Wegmans or Tops on Amherst Street. They also patronize a number of retailers that have opened in recent years including City Wine Merchant, Washington Market, and Wilson Farms.
For a supermarket to succeed, it needs a nearby household base to draw from every day of the week. Buffalo is not there yet.
Photos: Downtown supermarkets in Portland, Oregon