National trends say we’re in a recession as defined by this Wall Street Journal story from last year, but some say that by the time it’s declared, the economy is usually on it’s way back up. Considering how long ago the declaration was made, and in light of the current slide in certain areas, it’s safe to say that isn’t entirely true here and now.
A study released by the University at Buffalo yesterday pointed to the second quarter of 2008 as definitive indicators that the economy was taking a nosedive after suffering from late 2007.
According to the UB report, Isaac Ehrlich, SUNY and UB Distinguished Professor, chair of the UB Department of Economics and director of the UB Center of Human Capital said, “The model [using state data for annual state revenue forecasts] very clearly shows that the New York State economy began significantly slowing down in the third quarter of the 2007 fiscal year and slipped into a recession in the second quarter of the 2008 fiscal year.”
In this NPR interview with a Neil Conen from last July, Adam Davidson, NPR business correspondent, and Paul Maeder, co-founder of Highland Capital, offered some perspective on the economic landscape as it stood last summer. Though one of the participants said of recession, “We don’t know until it’s over,” it begs the question: Are we entering a depression, or have we hit bottom already?
The housing crisis, gas prices, stock market drops, people losing jobs, companies not growing and big government bailouts have all been symptoms of economic decline that we can map out over the past year and more, and Governor Paterson finally said the “R” word this past July.
This CNNMoney.com article from last February says that top economists were calling a recession then.
It’s also been theorized that there is an upside after a recession, due to companies who are able to fight lean and mean and other factors such as the research and use of alternative and green energy solutions. Obviously, in some ways, fighting a recession puts certain entities in a better position once the worst is over, but do they simply trim fat and leave the lean? This article from thetrumpet.com that looks at the possibility that the US Postal Service will lay off 40,000 mail carriers is indicative of the wide scope of the current recession.
What do you think–is the end in sight? With so many unemployed nationally and an upcoming holiday season that has a tendency to make or break small business, what might we expect in the beginning of 2009?
In keeping with our usual BR stance of “keep it local,” has it ever been more important to keep our dollars here in Buffalo whenever we can?
queenseyes
Newell Nussbaumer is 'queenseyes' - Eyes of the Queen City and Founder of Buffalo Rising. Co-founder Elmwood Avenue Festival of the Arts. Co-founder Powder Keg Festival that built the world's largest ice maze (Guinness Book of World Records). Instigator behind Emerald Beach at the Erie Basin Marina. Co-creator of Rusty Chain Beer. Instigator of Buffalo Porchfest, and Paint vs. Paint. Founder of The Peddler retro and vintage market on Elmwood. Instigator behind Liberty Hound @ Canalside. Throws The Witches Ball at Statler City, the Hertel Alley Street Art Festival, and The Flutterby Festival. And his latest adventure... FigBuffalo, with the intention of creating a Buffalo United Fashion Front (BUFF). Contact Newell Nussbaumer | Newell@BuffaloRising.com