By Bill Zimmermann and George Thomas Apfel.
Today’s the day. Tonight’s the night. Imagine listening to Ravel’s Bolero while reading the timeline of weather events leading up to Arborgeddon. Click here.
• October 1 – Long Range Numerical Weather models show deep low effecting the Great Lakes Basin
• October 6 – Possibility of Lake Effect Snow cited by NWS offices, numerical models mainly see rain
• October 7 – Chance of lake effect rain included in Buffalo area forecast with a slight possibility of flurries above 1300 ft
• October 9 – Chance of wet flurries mentioned at lower levels, NWS sees possibility of accumulating snows at higher elevations
• October 10 – Frontal zone develops over Northern Minnesota – Southern Manitoba.
• October 11 – Two low pressure systems form and merge over Northern Michigan before racing North
o 11:35 PM – Cold front passes Port Colborne reporting station in Ontario
• October 12 – Low pressure system deepens to 980mb and becomes centered 140km west of Attawapiskat
o 12:46 AM – Cold front passes Buffalo Airport reporting station
o 3:30 AM – Squall begins to form over Lake Erie
o 3:54 AM – Lake effect rain first reported at the Buffalo Airport
o 12:14 PM – Small hail and ice pellets reported at Buffalo Airport, temperature 5C
o 1:00 PM – Temperature falls to 3C at Buffalo Airport
o 1:38 PM – Temperature falls to 2C at Buffalo Airport
o 1:51 PM – Snow Rain mix reported at Buffalo Airport
o 2:36 PM – NWS Buffalo issues lake effect snow warning
o 2:54 PM – Radar detects first 20,000 ft echo top, first lightning detected as well
o 4:54 PM – Snow begins to accumulate as snowfall rates reach 3cm (1.81 in) per
hour, heavy thunderstorm reported
o 7:30 PM – Buffalo Airport grounds all flights due to weather conditions
o 8:00 PM – NWS Buffalo begins to receive numerous reports of trees and power lines toppling after 7cm (3 in) of snow accumulates
o 9:15 PM – Ontario Provincial Police close the QEW
o 10:25 PM – New York State Thruway closes interstate 190, the Niagara Thruhway
o 10:25 PM – Peace Bridge border crossing is closed
• October 13 – Low pressure system sinks South and becomes stationary over Pagwa River
o 1:00 AM – Buffalo Airport reports 21.84cm (8.59 in) of snow accumulation
o 8:00 AM – Buffalo Airport reports 55.88cm (22.0 in) of snow accumulation
• October 15 – Remaining snow fully melts
• October 23 – Most schools in the effected areas re-open
• October 24 – Erie, Genesee, Orleans and Niagara Counties in Western New York declared a “major disaster” area by President George W. Bush
And once again we invite my Buffalo history colleague George Thomas Apfel to join us with his report of events…
“Arborgeddon, New York”
The National Weather Service re-wrote the books for this one, for what occurred on those fateful two days in mid-October last year:
“The lake effect snow storm of October 12-13, 2006, was arguably the most destructive storm in Buffalo’s history. Despite its crippling impact, the storm was extremely difficult to forecast.” The week prior to the event weather forecasters knew unusual conditions were in place. Lake Erie was unusually warm for this late in the season at 62 degrees, and a large pool of very cold air aloft was forecast to settle in over the Niagara Frontier. Even with many years of experience Buffalo meteorologists had never seen anything of this magnitude.
It was thought with the lake being so warm it would prevent a lake effect snowfall from taking place—what was expected at the worst were heavy lake effect rains. Plus, it was only mid-October, and 120 years of weather records did not show such an event had ever occurred…only twice, in 1909 and 1896, had heavy lake-effect snows fallen this early in the season. Words cannot do justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. Not only was it the earliest named event by far (two weeks), it was the most unique in regards to destruction of trees and power outages, directly because of its out-of-season factor.
Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power, some for as long as a week (some outlying areas had periodic interruptions for weeks after), and tree damage was the worst in memory, especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area.”
As the week progressed forecasters continued with the assumption this would be a rain event, with perhaps some snow pellets (graupel) or wet snow inland, but by Thursday morning the 12 th it was becoming marginal, and a Warning was issued early Thursday afternoon for 1-6″ of wet snow, specifically because of the fact that most trees were still in full leaf, and the threat of serious damage and associated power outages. Also, the ground was fully saturated with heavy rains over the preceding weeks meaning trees with shallow root systems would suffer even more damage as they fell over.
The official recap from the National Weather Service continues, “The event began with lake effect rain during Thursday morning and midday, and enough cold air became entrained to change over the precipitation to wet snow in the Buffalo area by 3 pm. Still, little accumulation resulted for a few hours, but by 8-9 pm, reports of trees falling and power outages suddenly increased rapidly after 2-3″ of snow, which was very wet and weighed down the trees. Conditions only worsened overnight with near constant thunder and lightning for a good 12 hours. Cloud tops reached an incredible 25-30 thousand feet, about double previously observed in the worst events, this was directly attributed to the phenomenal uplift over the 62 degree lake.”
“The heaviest snow band set up across the North Towns Thursday evening, then drifted south to the Southtowns around midnight, then lifted slightly to the city and eastern suburbs in the wee hours before lifting north across the Northtowns again around daybreak and eventually to Niagara county Friday (13 th) morning where it weakened and faded to rain as the dynamic cooling process faded and allowed the boundary layer (the atmosphere near ground level) to moderate.”
The conditions of the storm were such that any warming to the air mass caused by the lake was overcome, plus the instability in the system was so great it made conditions worse. Thunder snow continuing for 12 hours meant moisture was being forced up high in the atmosphere where it met super cooled air, then brought down to the surface in the heavy snows.
Plus another condition was present which made matters worse—the air was very dry in advance of the storm, this created further cooling. It was as if the disaster movie “Absolute Zero” was coming true…but only in a 20 mile-wide band of Western New York. And it was much more terrifying than any movie, with the constant booms of thunder being punctuated with the ripping cracks of tree limbs falling constantly. The memories of that night bring chills to those who remember it, and likely will for years to come.
The weather service recap continues, “Even though plenty of damage resulted already in the first few inches, total snowfall in this event was simply unbelievable. 5 to 8 inches fell in the first phase of the event between 3 pm and midnight, but the snow water equivalent (swe) ratio was around 6:1 or so, hence the terrific damage to trees and power lines. The second phase featured slightly drier snow, maybe 12:1 but it piled up another foot in heaviest area, in just 4 hours or so. The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6″ in 1909, only 4 falls of 2″ or more in 100 years in October), but was the 7th greatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo!”
“The crippling snows extended well across Genesee and Orleans counties, and pushed into extreme southern Niagara county, but there was a sharp cutoff to any damage, which ran along a line from Whitehaven Road on Grand Island to Wheatfield to Medina on the north, Leroy and Bergen on the east, and East Aurora and southern Hamburg on the south.”
Finally, all snow melted within about 48 to 60 hours with little flooding.
“The event had the most impact of any in our record. Not only the amount of snow which was among our highest, but it was way out of season and of course had the far greatest damage and power problems and affected over a million people in a dramatic fashion for many days.”
Buffalo may get more press from the infamous “Blizzard of ’77” than the Friday the 13th storm, but that event pales in comparison to the destruction of “Arbor-geddon”…mainly because the lingering effects of the lost and damaged trees will be witnessed by generations to come. And the frightful sounds of that Thursday night and Friday morning one year ago will continue to bring chills to those who suffered through it for years to come.
A group of dedicated and concerned citizens have undertaken the task of replanting thousands of trees to replace the city’s treasures lost from this holocaust, RE-TREE WNY. Our city needs your help.
And that’s the snows from On This Day from Buffalo.
Bill Zimmermann
Bill runs Seven Seas Sailing school, and is a staunch waterfront activist. He is also heavily involved with preserving, maintaining, and promoting the South Buffalo Lighthouse. When Bill first started writing for Buffalo Rising, he wrote an article a day for 365 days - each article coincided with a significant historic event that happened in Buffalo on that same day.