Water = Buffalo’s Future
Could Climate Change Herald Mass Migration? (unedited version here)
At first glance, the crises of the rust belt and the Southwest would seem unrelated. They are, in fact, inexorably linked. Each has what the other does not. In Phoenix, tremendous affluence; in Cleveland, and in Detroit, Toledo, Youngstown, Buffalo, Rochester, Thunder Bay and Sault Ste. Marie, abundant, near-endless water – in the Great Lakes alone, as much as 25 percent of the world's supply.
"Sticking a straw in the Great Lakes is not a solution to Phoenix's water problems," says Robert Shibley, director of the Urban Design Project at the State University of New York at Buffalo. "Maybe it's time to really think about what constitutes need and stop spending money to build carrying capacity in places that don't have it by nature, and start investing in places that do."
Shibley has long been a champion of Buffalo's dormant potential – a potential reduced by half or more through the latter part of the 20th century, as the population fell below 300,000 from a historic high of more than 700,000.
He suggests that in the Great Lakes basin, where less than half a per cent of the world's population sits within easy reach of a quarter of the planet's fresh water, the opportunity for harmony exists. In a perfect world governed by reason, Shibley says, the only robust economic centre in the region would serve as its heart. And that would be Toronto.
"You're going to have 150 million people living in at least seven of the major regions that don't have water, don't have carrying capacity, can't feed themselves," Shibley says. "It's an ecological disaster waiting to happen. So there's a good reason to think that people should come back to the Northeast, where we have the carrying capacity, and have the water."
The long-term solution, of course, is to relocate people where they can comfortably exist. In a free society, of course, forced migration isn't really an option.
But as the sustainability crisis worsens, "usually economic forces will do it for you," says Robert McLeman, a professor of geography at the University of Ottawa. "When cities have to build new infrastructure and to jack up taxes to cope, when the cost of running a household becomes prohibitive, people will move."
It won't happen without help. In Buffalo, Shibley speaks of a federal urban sustainabilty plan that funnels federal money to the Great Lakes region to help draw population back. It's been more than 30 years since the U.S. had a comprehensive national urban plan. Looming ecological crises in burgeoning urban centers more than justify a revival. "Cities don't grow by topsy, it's not a thing of nature – it's a function of public policy," he says.
But a significant piece is missing, McLeman warns. "These cities will have milder climates, be easier to live in, and cheaper," he says, "but ultimately, they'll have to have the jobs to go with them."
But those problems, endemic rust-belt-wide, are just the most visible. High crime rates, languishing schools and spiralling urban poverty plague Cleveland, too. Phoenix, for all its money, can't make it rain any more than Cleveland, with all its water, can print the money it needs.
But the coming crisis, Shibley warns, could well become something no chequebook could manage.
"We're so focused on the cost of keeping large populations in the Southwest," he says, "that we haven't considered anywhere near enough the cost of leaving them out there long term. All of this is going to come home to roost, and as a society, we're going to have to figure out lower-impact ways of delivering quality of life. We can do that right here, right now."
Photo credit: CitySky Photography by Nate Farnsworth.
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gaustad
It is not gonna happen in our lifetime - 5.5 million people in Phoenix - they all have pools in their backyard - never heard of anyone in Phoenix or Vegas complain that they don't have enough water. They funnel it right in from the Colorado river.
The great lakes are nice, however polluted and under developed. In my view, the climate here is the biggest deterrent. Too many alernatives out there in the sun belt. Carolinas are boomin.
Most people do not want to live in perpetual rain and darkness, which is what we have on the great lakes.
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STEEL
I think Chicago Might have something to say about Toronto leading the Great Lake region.
The lakes may have a quarter of the world's fresh water. But that does not mean it is all there for the using. The ecologically usable portion of water is much much less. Look at the depth of the water at Niagara Falls. It is relatively shallow. Reduce the water flowing by just 5 feet and the Falls dry up. Speaking of drying up. Who is to say that global warming won't dry up the Lakes.
As for water in the south west. You can be damn sure that all that new political and financial clout will come in handy when it comes to using your federal tax dollars to subsidize new desalinization plants for Phoenix and other such cities . Think that is crazy? Who do you think paid for all the dams that provide water for this area already
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chris69
The problem with the Great Lakes is the cost of living. How shall I put this....at one time the top 10 most populated cities were all in the Northeast and Great Lakes. Well now none of the Great Lakes cities are in the top 10 most populated BUT our governments and our unions and our buracracy are all financed as though we are still the engines of the nation. Want proof? Explain why Pheonix has lower prices for water and sewar than any Great Lakes City?
Hey in 100 years the south and the west will be just as burocratic and ossified and out of date and polluted as the Northeast and Great Lakes region so they should not be smug, especially since it was the federal taxes from the Northeast and Great Lakes that built the infrastructure in the rest of the country.
Buffalo should have never stopped growing. It has always been conduit for trade between Boston/NYC/Philly and Chicago.....and now Buffalo is an International north south trade corridor between the US and Canada. We should be in much better shape economically than we are.....the fact we are NOT says more about local leadership and Albany than it does about Buffalos natural abilities. Buffalo has so many natural geographic advantages that the world new but forgot because our leadership and our state buracracy just made it to difficult and to costly to take advantage. its only a matter of time before they are rediscovered....the question again is not when or whether they will be rediscovered by the rest of the nation and the world BUT whether our local buracracy and the Albany buracracy will finally get out of the way!
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300miles
gaustad - perpetual rain and darkness? WTF are you talking about? The whining about mythical "bad weather" is kinda lame. Especially during our typical summer of mostly sunny days and, especially lately, very little rain. And if it ever really came down to Jobs and Survival, the luxury of year-round tropical weather is meaningless. The problems with the rustbelt have very little to do with weather, and people need to start realizing this fact.
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aka_mouse
OTOH while slight growth is good, lets not get stupid here and want the type of wild and uncontrolled growth these booming areas have undergone. Part of the reason over the past couple years Ive decided NOT to leave Buffalo is because of the problems faced elsewhere. Id rather take Buffalo, NY as it currently is, than have it turn into Las Vegas, or Atlanta, or Charlotte, or D.C. or Boston, or Los Angeles.
We need jobs and a diversified economy, and condensing more of our 1.2Mil Metro into the actual city of Buffalo rather than sprawling -- we DON'T need 20%+ (or whatever) annual growth rates. That path leads nowhere. In a way, our bad rep is a good thing. At some point in the future our nation, and the entire planet, is going to have to start seriously thinking equilibrium rather than growth as a model or measure of success. Because all sustained growth over time is exponential, and in a universe of finite resources - by that very definition - 'growth' is mathematically impossible to sustain forever. Like Prof. Al Bartlett says: It'll stop one way or another, either we choose or nature chooses.
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MisterChips
Shibley overstated or the Star misquoted our population peak. It was 550,000 in 1950.
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bindi14222
Buffalo Rising, you are disgusting. And by the way, your new issue sucks!
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Jay
If those articles are in fact true, I am surprised BR would post such content, especially in light of their efforts to promote the positives in our city.
However, I'm not going to boycott the site or anything because of a few links on dig. These guys put out a good product, cover positive stories, and are good part of the city's future.
Buffalo is better off with BR. Period.
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al-alo
just because we happen to have a large amount of bonded hydrogen and oxygen atoms floating out there, doesn’t mean can afford to just flush it away.
the great lake basin wont be emptied by one dripping faucet. but there is no need to be indifferent to protecting the resource. we should be developing conservation efforts like capturing roof runoff for gardening use, not to mention reducing the leakage from the city's old water mains.
relatively inexpensive fixes like these reduce demand and pumping costs (which, for some reason would lead to a rate increase, id bet). reducing demand will also allow us to have enough water to support all of the refugees from Phoenix and Tucson. : )
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becker
what happened to my post? Why was it deleted?
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AuburnAve
We're not losing water. I thought that when the ice caps melt, we will have more water to drink? We can desalinate can't we?
chris69 - Explanation: Sewer and water is cheaper in Arizona because their water system is newer than ours. Imagine all of the pipes, corroded and broken, in Buffalo and how long they have been there. Now think of a brand new development right nead a brand new highway with brand new water pipes.
And I think weather IS a factor in where people live and that it does matter in the Northeast. But it matters that we have harsh winters and that many springs and falls feel like "perpetual rain and darkness" sometimes. One reason people are moving to CA, AZ, NM, SC, TX, FL is due to the consistently warm weather. Hey, its not perfect weather to me, but a hot dry day is heaven to many people compared with a wet, wintery day.
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viking
Try living without water, commerce with Canada is critical they still have natural resources, more people in buffalo won't fix our problems better utilization of what advantages we have will. This is an area of consumers not producers of tangible products. Feeding the tax cow to supply jobs which fuel the economy is our problem. People don't need big paying jobs, people need the resources to live reasonably and affordable. If we can't produce goods and products, let's sell our services , attractions and geographic advantages. Money only substitutes and facilitates the exchange of goods and services. It's not the money that is important it is what it represents, as an exchange medium .
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al-alo
auburn,
just because global warming might melt the caps, doesnt really mean that there will be more drinkable water in the southwest. desalination is a good prospect for coastal areas, but the energy required to transport water is too great to bring it to places like Las Vegas.
a gallon of water is pretty heavy, 8 lbs a gallon. now think about how much water you might use in a day. now add up how much you use at work. and how about the industries, hotels, restaurants, etc. that is a lot of heavy and bulky water. and unfortunately pumping water uphill over great distances is not really an answer. in all likelyhood, it isnt really a feasable option.
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jerkface
this article is ridiculous. shibley is ridiculous. basically...let's get the gov't to give us free money because we're near a big lake. How about we find some decent leadership and cut waste at the local, county, and state level to make the money we do get more effective before we cry for more to waste. Aren't there more pressing issues to consider for our local urban planning "experts"?
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sbrof
Whether you feel it is human impact or not the Earth is changing and going to continue to change for a long time, just as it always has and humans need to learn to live a more sustainable life if we are to continue and improve our quality of life. That is one of the most important aspects of what Mr. Shibley said, in order to live the way we want to live we have to learn to be sustainable. We can't expect to add 1 billion people every 50 years to the planet and just assume that it can support it.
I totally agree with Mr. Shibley and others that feel Buffalo has the potential to grow in the wake or this change but unsustainable growth doesn't do anyone any good. City dwellers have a smaller carbon footprint than those in suburbs or rural regions (unless you grow and produce your own goods) To think that you are living a greener lifestyle with your acre of lawn is a myth and one of the most wasteful practices we could possible use the land for.
My only fear is that with growth and continuing strain on energy and water the market pushes back gradually and not snaps. Yes people in phoenix and las vegas have water for their pools, for now, but their aquifers are not going to last forever. They are already digging deeper to find water and some say with their current growth could run out of water in 20-50 years. That is if they dont start some sort or conservation efforts.
The Colorado River is already tapped to its peak. There isn't enough flow left in it for it to reach the ocean. Water is going to be in our lifetimes as serious issue. Just check any world science journal and you can't help but read about droughts here water shortages there... Australia is getting hit the hardest first by climate change, they have had forced water conservation for a couple years now, no more lawns, pools or washing your car....
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Denizen
Sbrof is dead on.
Cities like Phoenix are existing on borrowed time. Without cheap fossil fuels for mandatory driving and trucking goods everywhere (because these cities were built to navigate only by car), along with reliable electricity for everyone to run air conditioners, cities like Phoenix and Vegas will cease to exist very fast. These places are the worst manifestations of America's utter disregard for the planet.
In a world of dwindling resources and changing climates, a vastly-sprawling city in the middle of the desert with green lawns and golf courses is just so wrong on so many levels. Eventually the inhabitants of these unsustainable wastelands will have to suck it up and return to places in more "homely" climates. They'll bitch and moan but will have to accept this reality.
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gaustad
300 miles - are you out of your mind - have you ever lived in a warm climate ?
It is common knowledge that more than half of the people who leave this area because of the climate. 2nd to that is - " oh and by the way I am making more money"
The weather here BLOWS! Period!
IT SNOWED HERE LAST YEAR OCT 11 th - all our beautiful trees were split in half and now are being torn down.
we did not get to see the sun again until May - YOU DON'T THINK THAT IS A PROBLEM? People don't leave there house for months on end. No exercise, obesity, negativity - all becuase of the weather.
DON'T TELL ME THE WEATHER HERE IS NOT A FACTOR - IT IS!
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fill
I think that (if you can get around the grammar and the spelling errors) Chris has a point. In May, my electric bill was about $105.00 and all my appliances (save the refrigerator) are gas. My sister who lives between Ft. Meyers and Naples where there is no hydro power (or wind power, for that matter) had her air conditioning running every night for the preceding month, has all electric appliances and had an electric bill of around $80:00. What is wrong with this picture ?
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jen
I live in an apartment in Savannah with a roommate, and not a very big apartment I might add. I do run the AC pretty much from May - Oct. and in the summer "peak" months, Georgia Power is allowed by the state to charge me more for electricity. They recently merged with Savannah Electric and the (broken) promise was cheaper Electric and lower bills. With the cost of oil rising, this has not been the case and they have put in for numerous rate increases.
My bill last month was $186 dollars. Again, Apt. in Savannah for one month. Your sister fill is getting a great deal! I have heard from others around Savannah with houses and their houses cost a lot more in the summer as well.
Then again, the flip side is lower electric bills in the winter. I even open the windows to "cool" the place down in the winter. My electric bill is usually $80 in the winter months and split by two that's 40 bucks, not too bad.
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georgethomasapfel
I've lived in Vegas for over 40 years and can tell you what it's like when water gets scarce. We've been under a drought alert for years, currently our primary source of water-Lake Mead-is at it's lowest since 1964, down 70 feet and expected to fall to over 100 feet from its normal level. The local water district has "water police" cruising around the valley looking for water wasters, and will ticket and fine anyone found watering outside the allowed time limits and days or for allowing water to runoff into the street. They are using infrared imagery to target homes with too much yard covered with lawns. Las Vegas has temporary measures in effect to ensure enough water for the short term, including borrowing some of Arizona's Colorado River allotment. Long term solutions of piping in water from Northern Nevada are being met with stiff opposition from rural northern Nevada ranchers.
The visible effects of the drought are more startling. Mature trees are showing signs of heat stress and many are dying as the water table continues to drop. I receive my domestic water from a well, I have had to drill three new wells over the past 20 years-all due to ground subsidence and faults from a dropping water table. I often see the water well drillers in my area; living off a neighbor's garden hose for a month (the time it takes to get a new well dug as all the well drillers are so booked) gives you a new appreciation for precious water.
As for power, our rates have gone up 50% in the past few years, now a typical 1600 square foot home pays over $300 per month in the summer; one of my co-workers lives in a two story 2200 square foot new home and just had a $460 power bill. And here, "summer" runs from May to October. During a recent heat spell with daily highs of 117 degrees we experienced rolling blackouts as the grid couldn't keep up with demand. Well, I didn't personally experience it, during that week I was back home enjoying Buffalo Old Home Week and temps in the 70's.
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300miles
Goustad - If the economies of the rustbelt had not declined miserably for decades, most people would have never moved South/West. The economy and jobs are the PRIMARY reason for relocation, NOT WEATHER. Sure you want to liver where it's warmer, but most people wouldn't even start looking to move in the first place if the job growth had kept improving here.
That's why other "cold" cities haven't emptied out: because they retained their economic engines and job growth. Buffalo is not colder that Toronto or Chicago or Madison or Ann Arbor.
People don't flee cities because of weather. They leave because of economics.
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gaustad
Point taken 300 miles - but there are plenty of people that left here only becuaes of the weather - I am one of them - I actually made more money Buffalo - !
I have several friends that made more money in Buffalo that hve moved to Phoenix and Vegas - there are many people who realize that the quality of their lives might be better in Buffalo because of their contacts, but sacrifice to stay out of the cold.
Perhaps it doesn't bother you
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JohnMarko
al-alo:
Actually - desalinization is already a PART of Las Vegas water solution - we pay for a desalinization plant for LA, LA uses the plant's water, and LA lets Las Vegas keep an equivalent greater share of the Colorado River Basin water - all without the need for pipes or any such thing!
There is more than one way to skin a cat...
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JohnMarko
And to answer another mistaken person:
I live in Las Vegas. Buffalo born and raised (born in soon to be demolished Millard Filmore hospital and lived in Kenmore).
One: I have a 2,500 SF home and my AC is on all the time and my electric bill is at MOST $200 a month. And that IS in the "peak months". It used to be over $600 until last year. Why? I totally changed my AC system from a 1974 vintage roof top all in one heater/AC unit to a split system with 2 separate AC units and 2 separate furnaces for the Living half of the home and the Bedrooms half of the home! And I get a thousand dollar rebate from the government for doing it!
Two: Over 7,000 persons move to Vegas every month and yet the local Water District has REDUCED water consumption by over 40% or more for the same period of time! (I actually think it's higher I heard) I was one of those that has turned off the landscaping water, let the grass die and plan to change to desert landscaping in the front, and put in some fake "grass" carpet thing in the back that looks and feels like the real thing - it's even doggy poo and pee proof! And the new landscaping will have plenty of nice plants instead of a barren rock-scape - just desert compatible ones.
Three: Nevada Power is building a huge solar plant outside of town to produce electricity - that coupled with Hoover Dam's output just a few miles from here is like the Niagara Power Project for our power needs - but it is also like the NPP because most of the electricity goes to LA since, like the NPP, there wasn't much of a population here when it was built.
Four: Los Angeles, San Diego and most other SCAL cities are drought desert cities JUST LIKE VEGAS AND PHOENIX - only they stole their water long ago from OUR Colorado River and won't let us have any more of it as we grow even they are still growing more than Vegas by a many times mangitude - so don't just blame Vegas for being a "desert city" without water, please.
Five: There have been no "rolling blackouts". That is just not true. An occasional transformer has blown only a couple times this year a month or so ago, for a couple hours, but that is all.
Six: And this one's for Buffalo and all the Great Lakes communities: Don't let ANYBODY even begin to talk about putting a pippeline from the Great Lakes to our South West. Organize NOW. Don't let them do it, because here they ARE starting to talk about it! If YOU don't get ahead of this potential looming issue, you WILL lose, I'm afraid.
Finally: There are many Ghost Towns that dot the Nevada landscape - many that were booming and quite prominent in their day. I wonder if Las Vegas will eventually go the way of these self confident and self important towns, too. It's an interesting concept to consider...
I'll always love my hometown, and would move back in a spit second, but there are many varied reasons why that is not practical to consider - but you are all always in my heart and thoughts...
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tonyarmani
I said it before and will continue to say it until every last reader agrees: Buffalo will never be great as long as there are corrupt politicians and unions. It is impossible. Taxes and unions are killing this region from the inside out. Its purely economics. The only politician that seems to remotely care about the well being of Buffalo is Higgins, and he can't do it alone. Lets face it: as long as there are these two things Buffalo will never grow. Eventually your job will be replaced and your family will move. I hope for the best but except the worse. Best of luck Buffalo
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NathanFarnsworth
Every city has its issues...you would be a fool to ignore that. Buffalo has winters, yes...Buffalo is in NYS and has a taxation issue, yes. Does Buffalo offer the same as cities that are sometimes twice its size, yea.
It's easy to be a nay-sayer and talk bad about everything (very popular in politics BTW) but those who impress are the ones who stand up and bring about ideas, constructive comments and really address the issue.
oh, and if you blame people being fat on the fact we get snow...think again because there is no excuse for someone being lazy and not wanting to exercise...gyms are heated and inside buildings. Sometimes, there is no easy excuse.
anyways, Buffalo's future does revolve around the water...in so many ways I guess.
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