UNEDUCATED GUESS: Bills Try to Finish in Style
There's no playoff berth at stake for Buffalo on Sunday in Baltimore, but that doesn't make the Bills-Ravens game meaningless.
For one thing, it will be only the second time in six games a Buffalo game is televised in the Buffalo market, with the kickoff time moved back to 4:15 p.m.
For Baltimore, a win means grabbing the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. For the Bills, it's a simple matter of pride.
Buffalo has already won two more games than a year ago. Upsetting a 12-3 team to finish at .500 would stamp Marv Levy's first season as general manager as an unquestionable success, particularly given the non-existent expectations going in.
An ugly loss, though, would end the season with a nasty taste, leaving an entire to offseason to wonder if the improvement was a natural step toward contention or a fluky overachievement.
During the various low points of their history, the Bills have turned the run-for-the-bus game ,Aei a season finale on the road with nothing at stake except finishing the season free of debilitating injuries ,Aei into an art form.
The term first came into vogue locally during a three-year span starting in 1968, when Buffalo ended a grotesque season with a 35-6 loss in Houston (securing the right to draft O.J. Simpson and ultimately ensuring the city would be mentioned in thousands of stories about a hideous double murder decades later). The Bills outdid themselves the next year, enduring a 45-6 humiliation in San Diego. They showed marked improvement in 1970, closing it out with a 45-7 beating in Miami, the second in what would expand into a 10-year, 20-game losing streak against the Dolphins.
Appropriately, the worst endings are provided by the lamest teams. Buffalo was a combined 8-32-2 during those three seasons. The '76 Bills ended a 2-12 year with a 58-20 stinker in Baltimore, then the home of the Colts, and closed out a 3-11 slate the next year with a 31-14 surrender in Miami.
The worst Bills of the red-helmet era, the 2-14 editions of '84 and '85, got gutted 52-21 and 28-0 in Cincinnati and Miami, respectively. Gregg Williams' first team ended 2001 with a 34-7 pasting in Miami, and the crashing disappointments of 2003 were crushed 31-0 in New England, a perfect bookend to a year the Bills started by blasting the Patriots by the same score in Orchard Park.
There's no reason to expect such an effort, or lack thereof, in Baltimore on Sunday. If Dick Jauron's game management skills been open to debate from time to time, particularly in the final minute last week against Tennessee, his ability to motivate hasn't.
In the eight games since the bye week, Buffalo's three losses have come by one, three and one points to Indianapolis, San Diego and the Titans. The first two are already in the playoffs and the third enters Sunday with hope remaining.
The Ravens aren't 12-3 by accident, with a punishing defense that only allows 14 points a game at home and offense led by Steve McNair that does just enough to get by.
How he fares against that defense will show how far J.P. Losman has come since midseason, when he disintegrated in Chicago.
With a week off on the line, the Ravens should be able to outlast Buffalo. But as a 9.5-point underdog, the Bills are a good bet to keep it close.
Ravens, 17-14.
Oakland at N.Y. Jets (-12): It's probably just as well the Titans won last week. Even if Buffalo had gotten close enough for the winning field goal and beaten Baltimore on Sunday, they'd need an upset win by 2-13 Oakland. New York stinks against good teams, but feasts on crummy ones. Jets, 37-5.
Green Bay at Chicago (-3): The Bears wrapped up homefield advantage in the NFC around Halloween, but the Packers still might, incredibly, have a shot at the last wildcard berth if enough other crummy teams lose Saturday or earlier in the day. The most interesting thing about this game, though, might be whether Rex Grossman goes the distance or gives way to Brian Griese again. Bears, 25-19.
N.Y. Giants (-2.5) at Washington: Another bleak loss for perhaps the most annoying coach-quarterback combination in football, in what should be the last outing together for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Redskins, 27-21.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-6): The Steelers have had a lousy season and it could be Bill Cowher's last game on the Pittsburgh sideline. For a lot of teams, that would be cause to run for that bus. For Pittsburgh, it will more likely be motivation to end the Bengals' underachieving season. Especially with Cincinnati still reeling from that botched extra point in the final minute that cost them a chance to force overtime in Denver last week. Steelers, 30-17.
Detroit at Dallas (-12.5): Now here's what running for the bus is all about. Cowboys, 45-6.
Cleveland at Houston (-4): Will this be the last game for Romeo Crennel as the Browns coach? For David Carr as Houston's QB? Does anyone outside these two cities care? Texans, 28-13.
Miami at Indianapolis (-9): Indy's soft run defense gets exposed yet again. Dolphins, 20-17.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-2.5): Two more slim-hopers who need the Raiders to win. Good luck with that. Chiefs, 21-16.
Minnesota at St. Louis (-2.5): The Rams get in with a win if the Giants, Falcons and Panthers all lose or tie. Not as difficult as it sounds. Rams, 33-24.
Carolina (-3) at New Orleans: The amazing Saints have clinched a first-round bye, explaining the point spread. But the Panthers, yet another 7-8 NFC team with a playoff shot, will find a way to blow it. Saints, 23-21.
Atlanta at Philadelphia (-8.5): In maybe the weirdest development of a very odd year, the Eagles can clinch the NFC East with Jeff Garcia, who was discarded by San Francisco, Cleveland and Detroit in consecutive offseasons, at quarterback. Eagles, 27-10.
Seattle at Tampa Bay (-3): Despite losing three straight, the Seahawks have already clinched the NFC West and seem content to go into the postseason on a four-game skid. Bucs, 16-12.
New England at Tennessee (-3): The Patriots already know they're hosting a first-round playoff game, so will likely play their regulars sparingly. If Denver, Cincinnati and Jacksonville win while the Titans lose, they'll become the first team ever to start 0-5 and make the playoffs. Titans, 24-20.
San Francisco at Denver (-10.5): But Denver's not losing at home to the 49ers. Broncos, 34-21.
Arizona at San Diego (-14): The Chargers clinch homefield with a win and the Cards won't put up much of a fight. Chargers, 38-13.
(Last week: 10-5 overall, 8-6-1 against the spread. Season: 95-65 overall, 79-72-9 against the spread.)
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tsar
Though the game is essentially meaningless for Bills fans it will be nice for me, who works Sunday mornings, to catch a game in its entirety thanks to the new start time. Maybe chow down on some wings at some local establishment, probably in the Falls.
I don't care what anyone sez....this team played over its' collective head for most of the last half of the season.
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Mr. Semaj
While the Bills might be finishing off better than expected, it's still disappointing that they've gone SEVEN consecutive seasons without making the playoffs. (This IS nearly a full decade, folks.)
Of course, given the number of losses that coulda/shoulda/woulda been won this year, which was nearly all of them, a loss tomorrow would be no surprise.
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PimpSlap
dave staba - what are your credentials to handicap games? people in these parts are losing enough that a wannabe handicapper is the last thing this community requires. albeit, if you are a master handicapper, you sure crapped the bed this week.
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Boston Billiever
I could be wrong... but he's not handicapping the games. He's just picking the games with the spreads already established elsewhere. That's no different than a thousand other writers/bloggers/columnists on the internet. The idea with spreads is that it should be a tossup when picking a game. A couple years ago, a pecking chicken on the Howard Stern show performed better at picking games than an actual person. Bill Simmons (ESPN Page 2) is currently losing this season to his girlfriend who knows next to nothing about football. This writer picking games and posting them surely isn't doing a disservice to the community... so just relax a little bit there.
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