Buffalo Rising Online

Dec 10th 2006, 9:35am By Dave Staba

At first glance, things look pretty grim for Buffalo today against the New York Jets.

The Bills highly permissive run defense (they've allowed a horrid 197.3 yards per game on the ground over the last three weeks) figures to be further weakened by the loss of linebacker Angelo Crowell, who is out for the year with a broken leg. And rookie safety Donte Whitner, drafted in the first round in large part for his ability against the run, is listed as questionable with a sore hamstring.

With Cedrick Houston, who slashed Green Bay for 105 yards and scores during the Jets' 38-10 win last week, sharing carries with Kevan Barlow and Leon Washington, New York is poised to exploit Buffalo's greatest weakness.

The Jets' run defense isn't much better, ranking 26th in the National Football League. But Willis McGahee's ankle injury could hamper his effectiveness against a team he usually owns.

The Meadowlands has been the site of nightmares for Buffalo quarterbacks far more accomplished than J.P. Losman. With the Jets in serious playoff contention and all day to get juiced up for a 4:15 p.m. kickoff, Losman's going to have to overcome a rabid crowd and a dark, early winter day.

But a closer look at the Jets shows they're far from invincible.

New York's offense ranks 24th overall, while the defense is 26th (Buffalo is 31st and 20th, respectively).

After a strong start, Chad Pennington has faded a bit, raising questions about the strength of his repeatedly injured shoulder and his long-term viability as the Jets' starter. He's thrown more interceptions than Losman (13 to 10) and has a slightly lower quarterback rating (81.4 to 82.0). He's not terribly mobile, either, and the pass rush has been a Bills strength.

That won't matter, of course, if Buffalo can't slow down the running game. The injuries will force defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to shake things up, which, given the ease with which Houston, Jacksonville and San Diego piled up yards, might not be such a bad thing.

Likewise, necessity will force the Bills to get creative on offense. Moving Losman around to avoid the New York pass rush could help keep the undermanned defense off the field with a short passing game. And with McGahee hobbled, Anthony Thomas should see more carries.

New York, at 7-5, is a 3.5-point favorite. That's not much of a spread, especially with Buffalo at 5-7 and all but out of postseason consideration, two games behind the wild-card pack consisting of today's hosts, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Denver. Must be the oddsmakers also have the feeling that the Jets aren't really all that good.

They're certainly not unbeatable.

Bills, 21-20.

Baltimore at Kansas City (-3): Nobody stops the run better than the Ravens, and running is about all the Chiefs can do. Down goes one of those 7-5 teams. Ravens, 16-10.

Indianapolis (-1) at Jacksonville: You know, if the Bills beat the Jets, and enough 7-5 teams lose, the final weeks just might get interesting. Here's another one. Colts, 34-20.

Denver at San Diego (-7.5): And another. Chargers, 28-16.

Oakland at Cincinnati (-10.5): But let's not get ridiculous. Bengals, 48-7.

Philadelphia (-1) at Washington: How bad is the NFC? Jeff Garcia is leading the Eagles' charge back into playoff contention. Eagles, 20-17.

Green Bay at San Francisco (-4.5): And his old team still has a shot, too. 49ers, 24-14.

New England (-3.5) at Miami: So much for the Joey Harrington Era. Patriots, 31-13.

Atlanta (-3) at Tampa Bay: At the moment, Tampa is a very good place for a struggling team to get well. Falcons, 24-6.

Minnesota at Detroit (-1.5): Yuck. Vikings, 15-11.

Tennessee at Houston (-1): Texans fans get to watch the team that ditched them, led by the quarterback they should have drafted, beat them in their own stadium. Tennessee, 27-20.

N.Y. Giants at Carolina (even): At least we shouldn't be seeing any Eli Manning commercials anytime soon. Panthers, 23-17.

New Orleans at Dallas (-7.5): Things have been going a little too smoothly for Dallas lately. Saints, 31-28.

Seattle (-3) at Arizona: Why don't the Cardinals fire Denny Green now and get it over with? Seahawks, 40-9.

Chicago (-6) at St. Louis: How bad does Rex Grossman have to be to lose his job? This might do it. Rams, 13-2.

(Uneducated Guess had last weekend off, but went 9-4 both overall and against the spread on Week 12's Sunday and Monday games. For year, that brings the ledger to 65-51 overall, 53-55-8 against the spread.)