Buffalo Rising Online

Dec 23rd 2006, 12:28pm By Dave Staba

It's Christmas weekend, so in the spirit of the holiday, we're not going to dwell on the fact the most important Bills game in two years won't be televised in the Buffalo area.

Or the archaic National Football League policy that forces the blackout.

Or the remarkable arrogance showed by the NFL in scheduling a full complement of games on Christmas Eve, rather than shifting the bulk of Week 16 to Saturday.

Instead, we'll focus on what has to happen for next week's Bills game, in Baltimore on New Year's Eve, to be equally meaningful.

First, they have to beat the Tennessee Titans.

Then they need three of the following four to lose: the New York Jets, Cincinnati, Denver and Jacksonville. Cincinnati visits Denver in a 4:15 p.m. game, so at least one of those needed defeats is a given.

The visitors have won five straight, but have done so in rather fluky fashion. Last week's 24-17 win against Jacksonville came despite just 98 yards in total offense, thanks to three defensive touchdowns.

That's not going to happen again. And that puts additional pressure on rookie quarterback Vince Young.

Young has made crucial big plays in every other game since taking over as the starter, but he's dead last in passer rating and has completed just over half his throws. He's going to have to do better than that Sunday. With the forecast calling for temperatures in the 40s, but gusting winds and possibly rain or snow showers, that's no easy trick.

J.P. Losman, meanwhile, seems to be mastering the conditions at Ralph Wilson Stadium and the rest of the Bills have turned in better-than-solid overall performances the past two weeks, thrashing the Jets in New Jersey and the Dolphins in Orchard Park by a combined 52-13. (You can relive the 21-0 spanking of Miami here.)

A 4.5-point favorite, Buffalo should make short work of the Titans and their playoff hopes, even if an inspired Travis Henry turns in a huge day, and join the rest of Western New York in watching the league-wide scoreboard.

Bills, 26-14.

Cincinnati at Denver (-3): The Bengals could have showed their playoff-worthiness against the Colts last week and flopped. No reason to think they'll do much better in Denver, especially with Carson Palmer's shoulder aching. Broncos, 24-16.

New England at Jacksonville (-3): Another one goes Buffalo's way. Patriots, 19-17.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (-2.5): The Bills ended Miami's playoff hopes last week and that 0.0 quarterback rating couldn't have done much for Joey Harrington's confidence. Plus, the Jets still have plenty of motivation. Jets, 28-19.

Oakland at Kansas City (-7): The Raiders keep Kansas City barely alive. Chiefs, 23-9.

New Orleans at N.Y. Giants (-3): The Giants have more to play for, but New Orleans is a better team. Saints, 34-27.

Carolina at Atlanta (-6.5): Both are technically alive in the playoff race, but Carolina suddenly stinks. Falcons, 23-13.

Washington at St. Louis (-1.5): The Redskins are out, so St. Louis has the motivational edge. Rams, 17-12.

Indianapolis (-9) at Houston: This would be a spot for an Indy letdown, but the Texans have called it a season. Colts, 44-8.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3): Say goodnight, Steelers. Ravens, 9-6.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland (-3): Enjoy this one, Browns fans. Bucs, 5-3.

Chicago (-5) at Detroit: The Bears pad their misleading record. Bears, 27-14.

Arizona at San Francisco (-4): At 6-8, the 49ers are still alive. Nice conference, NFC. 49ers, 25-12.

San Diego (-4) at Seattle: The Seahawks have lost two straight, but still lead the pathetic NFC West. And they still will after they make it three. Chargers, 33-17.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-7): The Cowboys prevail, but it won't be easy. Cowboys, 28-26.

(Last week: 11-3 overall, 9-5 against the spread. Overall: 85-60 overall, 71-66-8 against the spread.)