BUF : MIA-- it's all "In The Buf" and "Missing in Action"
"The BILLS WILL BE GONE IN UNDER 5 YEARS, SAVE YOUR BREATH,... ALL OF YOU... A NEW OWNER CANNOT JUSTIFY KEEPING THE TEAM HERE"
Well-- "WeLovePanos"-- let's ask if it's a possibility that the BILLS will stay here ...and that maybe even Mr. Wilson will celebrate his 100th birthday HERE in 2018, but with a significant but smaller portion of ownership.
Mr. Wilson leads the heralding very roots of the NFL-AFL beginnings...and there just might also be a Chairman Kemp, and possibly a President Jim Kelly and maybe a Vice President Thurmon Thomas who just may be in the flanks of ownership too. That's what's going to maybe happen HERE in OUR Buffalo, because that is what should happen... Maybe...maybe... but what do YOU think? If we only had a Buffalo Bills' crystal ball.
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RisingDamp666
All that goodwill and $700 million keeps the Bills in Buffalo. Since the NFL is now all about media markets and TV revenue, every team out there might as well play on Mars so long as the TV money rolls in. What must really bother them is that they once had two teams in the nation's second largest media market and the locals only wanted to see their USC Trojans play. Even Major League Soccer gets more press in L.A.-so there's hope that something even more counterintuitive than the raw numbers is at work here.
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Auburner
Treasurer Oranthol James Simpson...
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chris69
Count me among those that dont think the Bills we be leaving Buffalo. Buffalo is just to piss ass poor for the regional power brokers in Buffalo and Rochester and if they play their cards properly southern Ontario too allow an internationally branded sports team leave.
Plus it will leave NYS without having a single team within NYS.
Somehow we let the trains and the ports and the aircraft manufacturers, and the steel mills and the chemical plants etc all slip away rather silently but as we have seen...the Bills will not go silently....so the question becomes not so much whether they will leave or stay but what package must be put together to make it worthwhile for them to stay and I honestly dont think that much thought has been put into that question YET! Im not even sure that the Bills have a full picture of what they need in order to stay. However I am confident that when the crisis hits such a picture will be drawn and in the end...a package will be made allowing them to stay.
It may even require concessions from Albany that will finally allow Buffalo to grow enough to support the team. imagine if that were a possible outcome.
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chris69
PS personally I dont think Toronto wants the Bills for a permanent team. Canadians have their own Canadian Football League and Soccer League....they dont need the Bills. That being said...there are Canadians that like US Football....and while torontonians dont want to support both the American Football League and the Canadian Football League.....there are enough fans in Southern Ontario to enjoy the Bills and be convinced to visit Buffalo, especially if enticed by the Bills playing in their local such as Toronto or Hamilton.
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Buffalopundit
Oh, I see what you did there.
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hamp
The Bills will not be leaving Buffalo as long as Goodell is the Commissioner.
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WholeLottaJibbaJabbah
Can we seriously talk about this when the lease for the Buffalo Bills is closer to being up? I really doubt that the Bills will leave Buffalo and go to Toronto, LA, Las Vegas (will never have a professional sports team) Niagara Falls NY or Ontario. The one preseason game in Toronto, and the One Regular Season game in again, Toronto is not going to kill you. Whether that game sells out, don't worry sports fans I am sure it will be on TV. The organization is trying to save the Bills by expanding their fan base and at the same time playing ball with what the NFL wants to become in the future. Plus it's better to have that game in Toronto than say Great Britain, at least you could "drive there for breakfast and be home by dinner." The NFL is trying to become a GLOBAL SPORT, did you all miss that press confrence? The Bills, Pittsburg, Cleveland and Greenbay, I'll even throw in Oakland, are the tough gritty original NFL Blue collar teams and give the NFL that this is an every man sport. Whether you're a CEO of a fortune 500 company or a floor supervisor at the Ford Stamping Plant working 80 hours a week, football is for every person. Houston, Cleveland, Oakland and Baltimore all at some point lost their football team. Within a few years (except Baltimore, it was more like 30 some odd years), they got their team back. For as much as I think Ralph Wilson is only a Good Owner and not a Great Owner, he has never been interested in selling or moving this team. This crap is just making me sick. Until someone from the Offices of One Bills Drive comes out and says, "Hey, we're broke and LA, Toronto or (insert wherever you believe they will move to here) has more money, see you guys later it was great while it lasted, oh and sorry about those 4 years in the 90s, our bad." Then and only then I will start worrying about the Buffalo Bills leaving. And by worrying I mean insighting a riot and burning the city to the ground. (i am being sarcastic about that last park, sort of)
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BROKEEPSBLOCKINGME
here goes ...
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TBone
While I dont know whether or not the Bills will be here in 5 or 10 years, what I do know, is that Bill's hope wont happen, and it is simple to see why:
Ralph Wilson bought the Bills at $25,000, the team is now estimated at a value greater than 650 million (there are many different estimates, but the actual number is unimportant). IF Wilson were to sell any portion of his team today he would be forced to pay capital gains tax on that sale. Then at Wilson's death that value would be taxed again via the estate tax.
However, if Wilson holds the team until he dies, he pays only the estate tax- its complicated by essentially once the team leave's Wilson's estate its base value for purposes of capital gains treatment is the current value of the team.
My point is essentially this: If Wilson sells before death, his estate will be significantly devalued due to the capital gains tax, and his heirs will have to pay a second tax on whatever is left. It makes no sense for him to sell anything- which is why he is adamant that he will die as owner of the Buffalo Bills- and which is why if we, as a community, wish to attempt to keep the Bills- we have to figure this into our plans.
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WeLovePanos
T BONE is the first and only person to hit the nail on the head... And he forgot to mention that the Bills, if sold after his death, fiscally cannot survive the debt service that would be due on a loan of $650 million plus. The hnumbers just dont make sense, and I love Buffalo and our Bills! Im not trying to be negative here Bill, but any businessman can make sense that the financial figures when accurately accounted for, just dont add up to keep the team here after Mr Wilson dies... which hopefully wont happen for 20 more years!!!
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drl
TBone and WeLovePanos,
Sounds like a lot of fuzzy math to me. I wouldn't go off your analysis to save my life.
I am sure that there is quite a bit going on behind closed doors that the public cannot be aware of at this point.
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WeLovePanos
Our Luxury boxes sell for $50,000 to $100,000 and are not sold out... Large markets get between $250,000 and upwards of $1 million... their revenue far exceeds ours... Thats how debt service is paid
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TBone
DRL, I am not saying there are not possibilities to keep the team in Buffalo, far from it, I do not totally agree with WeLovePanos because we do not know the debt/equity position of any potential buyer or group of buyers; and it is possible the Wilson could negotiate some sort of Right of First refusal to a certain buyer based on contingencies....
My point, which I thought I had made clear is only that the team will not be sold prior to his death due to the tax consequences, and to increase the odds of keeping the team in Buffalo we must be aware of that, and plan for it. Nothing- short of an act of congress eliminating the capital gains tax, or somehow exempting Wilson from it will make the sale of the team prior to his death feasible.
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drl
TBone, you are right. We don't know the debt/equity position of the potential buyers or the financial packaging that would come from the county/state. Who thought they could keep a team in Green Bay (even after they temporarily moved a few games to Milwaukee).
4 things we do know:
1. The Bills are profitable 2. There are teams that are bringing in less revenue 3. The Bills have a steady loyal fan base that buys tickets even when they are losing 4. State and local govt has said it is prepared to keep the team here (this has been the biggest problem historically when teams have moved)
Its too early to start spreading doom and gloom like WeLovePanos or WGR 550 (oops, did I say that)
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sancor
As a Canadian supporter of the Bills, I hope the Bills stay in Buffalo forever. Mr. Rogers is trying to bring them to his neighbourhood but they do not belong in Toronto. Attending a professional sporting event in Toronto is like having to go to downtown T.O. for a dentist appointment. Tailgate? What's that? T.O. just has no heart and soul compared to Buffalo.
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rb66
sancor says, "As a Canadian supporter of the Bills, I hope the Bills stay in Buffalo forever. Mr. Rogers is trying to bring them to his neighbourhood but they do not belong in Toronto. Attending a professional sporting event in Toronto is like having to go to downtown T.O. for a dentist appointment. Tailgate? What's that? T.O. just has no heart and soul compared to Buffalo."
This hits the nail on the head. Yes, I know it's all about the money from suits purchasing luxury boxes and suites. But without the heart and soul you have nothing. There's a reason LA, the largest TV market in the country, doesn't have a team. They don't care.
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rb66
sancor says, "As a Canadian supporter of the Bills, I hope the Bills stay in Buffalo forever. Mr. Rogers is trying to bring them to his neighbourhood but they do not belong in Toronto. Attending a professional sporting event in Toronto is like having to go to downtown T.O. for a dentist appointment. Tailgate? What's that? T.O. just has no heart and soul compared to Buffalo."
This hits the nail on the head. Yes, I know it's all about the money from suits purchasing luxury boxes and suites. But without the heart and soul you have nothing. There's a reason LA, the largest TV market in the country, doesn't have a team. They don't care.
The Bills belong and will remain in Buffalo.
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RonR
DRl,
The Bills under the current ownership is profitable. I am pretty sure nobody is talking about building Ralph a downtown stadium. However, when he sells the team someone will be paying upwards of $600 Million for the Bills. Any new owner is going to need tools to provide for the debt services on $600 Million. It is obvious that the current stadium can not provide for this.
The most recent article I could find was from last year in USA today. It claims that "the highest average ticket cost is in New England ($90.89) and the lowest is in Buffalo ($41.29)" which is not a good thing.
A sellout at the Ralph brings in around $3,054,097. A sellout in New England which holds 5,200 less seats brings in $6,249,232. So selling 5,200 less tickets makes $3,195,135. While this might make Ralph money any new owner is going to look at these numbers and see the problem. On top of this, we are not even covering the profits from luxury boxes. Which NE has 87 and most likely go for 4X what they go for in Buffalo.
You are correct that the team has a very loyal fan base but most of those loyal fans watch the game from home. I am not sure what the numbers are but I think I read that 25% of the fans at the game are not from Erie county. I think the main reason for this is the outdoor stadium. Call people names but the fact of the matter is some people do not buy season tickets because they do not want to be outside for the games in November and December. An indoor stadium would not only open up more season tickets but the price could go up. Hell it should go up. Not to New England levels but it should be in the middle of the pack. A new owner is going to want to charge this. A new owner is going to NEED to charge this. He or she will not get this with the current stadium.
Additional to the regular seats, there needs to be more sponsorship from corporations. These companies are in Rochester and Toronto. Buffalo has been pretty much milked. If corporations are going to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on boxes and come in from out of town, they are going to want to stay in the city. Like it or not but driving from Toronto to Buffalo, checking in to a hotel and then driving to OP does not work for CEO's or VP's. This is the new NFL.
Lastly, there is to be rail connecting Ohio to Toronto via Buffalo and rail connecting NYC to Buffalo via Albany and Rochester. IF, and it is a big if, but if this ever gets done the rail will go into downtown and not OP. A new stadium will need to be on this line to make it work.
Not to be a party pooper but speaking about all of this is fun and all but I think the Bills leave in less then 15 years. There are just too many people who do not see how the new NFL works and they live in Buffalo.
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vgs
Why are we being force fed all this Bills stuff right now Give it a rest, nobody knows what will happen and its useless to discuss at this point. Let it go for gods sake.
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TBone
VGS Its that kind of attitude that has lead to decades of economic decline in this region.
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jkracken
Buffalo needs an all weather stadium. Cities with more benign climates have all weather stadiums. If there was a domed stadium more people would be willing to pay more to attend a game.
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vgs
I agree jkracken a retractable roof is the way to go but most cold cities actually do not have domed stadiums. Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New England, NY, Philly, Chicago, Cincinatti. I guess that only leaves Detroit and Minnesota. I think the CFL teams even play outdoors.
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forward
Tons of great banter on keeping the Bills, losing the Bills, Erie County getting stuck with the bill, etc...All stuff that could and might very well be out of our control. Perhaps I'm starting an entirely new thread here and I'm sure I'm going to annoy others with this segue, but Buffalo does not need a stadium downtown before it needs a new convention center-not just one used for a gigantic disco or a car show.
Putting a state of the art, massive center somewhere-ANYWHERE-downtown (Site of the old Pier or perhaps the beautiful waterfront property that's now the ice boom parking lot) will draw conventioners from all over the country to stay at our hotels, eat, shop, play, take tours, watch a show, ski...catch a Bill's game, and >>gasp<< gamble at a casino. A convention center fosters growth! Conventioners and lay persons will bring more cash to a downtown in a 365 day period than a professional football game. They're almost always traveling on someone else's dime, and stay for days rather than 6 hours standing in a parking lot getting pickled.
Sorry for the slightly off topic rant. Go Bills, Go Sabes, going to shut up now...
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zimbuddha
T.O.'s Globe & Mail wrote a year ago "It has been widely speculated that Toronto could get a team through franchise relocation, with the Buffalo Bills the most obvious possibility, because of an aging owner and its small market." Nothing's changed on that statement, nor will it likely for some time.
There's three separate T.O. billionaires have come in the openly mentioned reach for the Bills; topping the list is Fred Rogers of Rogers Media (known to be more zealous than Rupert Murdoch --always get what he wants).
We (Buffalo) don't want the team to go-- and would of course love to see Kelly head up a successful buy-out. But think about somehow working with Toronto--(couple other other move options are CA and Mexico City)...
The Bills went from a $450 million dollar team around a year ago to a $560 million value more recently--and will surely continue increasing in value. I wonder if anyone agrees with my hunch that Ralph Wilson would probably sell part or all for significantly less than the highest speculated value in order to keep the team here? Sure, he'll want at least 600 million-- he's no fool, but he wouldn't go reaching anywhere for say a billion, do you think? I just don't think he'd do that.
I base that hunch on the fact that at his age his legacy is all about the past 40+ years here. If he were a younger man and wanted out-- he'd probably get a billion for the team from "someone somewhere" (who given a few more years would likely recoup their initially overpaid investment).
Just another question for finance-related Bills followers--- what's the best guess of the Bills's dollar value in say 10 years, given historical value increases? I'd say skightly upwards of a billion. Add another quarter to half billion if it were in a bigger market. Agree? Disagree?
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jkracken
Buffalo needs a new convention center and a new stadium , now is the time to start planning for a joint facility like Indianapolis, where a new covered stadium is used to proved additional space for their new convention center.
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Joshua
There was going to be a dome built when the Bills moved out of the City. The dome was suppose to be built in Lancaster. For some reason the stadium was built in O.P. Curious...why wasn't the new stadium built in the City at that time??? Any reasons? Political, I'm sure.
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WeLovePanos
RON R hits it on the head... The team is currently profitable because there is no debt... A new owner will not be able to pay debt service with the currrent revenues... The numbers just dont add up
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