UNEDUCATED GUESS (Part II): Sunday, Blackout Sunday
What a day for a blackout.
A forecast for predicting 50 degrees and partly cloudy skies at kickoff will make the first non-televised Bills game of the year more bearable for the football addicted. At least they can distract themselves by raking leaves, cutting the grass one last time or simply wandering around aimlessly.
The unseasonably mild conditions won’t be much help against the Jacksonville Jaguars, though.
Snow and/or rain, cold and, especially, swirling winds usually make Ralph Wilson Stadium a miserable place for visiting teams, especially those with Florida addresses. With feeble gusts only expected to reach 12 mph, Buffalo’s atmospheric advantage should be non-existent.
The Jaguars don’t look like a great match-up for the home team under the best of conditions, with a strong running game and a stout run defense.
But their reputation, and 6-4 record, has been built mainly at home. The Jaguars are just 1-3 on the road. They’ve lost twice to Houston, who the Bills topped last week, and somehow managed to give up 36 points in Washington to a Redskins team that hasn’t been able to generate much offense against anybody else.
Given Jacksonville’s strength against the run and injuries in the secondary, including losing safety Donovan Darius for the season in last week’s 26-10 win over the New York Giants, the Bills’ chances depend largely on J.P. Losman producing at least a decent performance.
That, it must be said, is anything but a sure thing, despite the last week’s early- and late-game heroics against the Texans. But his counterpart with the Jaguars, David Garrard, is winning gushing praise simply by not screwing things up too badly since replacing Byron Leftwich.
That has worked pretty well at home, but winning on the road, even against mediocre opposition, requires a little bit more.
And even though this will be the first game of the entire NFL season to not sell out in time to lift the blackout, there will still be close to 72,000 very loud fans to rattle the visitors, even without the help of high winds and sleet.
Logic would suggest taking Jacksonville, a 3-point favorite, anyway. But the way this season has gone, maybe going against sound reasoning is the way to go.
Bills, 23-20.
Houston at N.Y. Jets (-5): Losing to the Bills at home couldn’t have done much for the Texans’ confidence. Jets, 24-17.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3): The Steelers are desperate and it’s too early for them to be completely out of contention. Steelers, 16-13.
Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland: The Browns don’t have the firepower to keep up with Cincy. Bengals, 30-16.
Arizona at Minnesota (-6.5): Why couldn’t they black this out? Vikings, 12-8.
San Francisco at St. Louis (-5.5): The 49ers have won three straight, the Rams have lost five in a row and San Francisco won the first meeting. Yet St. Louis is favored by this much? Seems like there must be a catch, but … 49ers, 20-13.
New Orleans at Atlanta (-3): The Saints have lost three out of four, but Atlanta’s lost three in a row and Michael Vick is regressing. Neither team’s been playing much defense, so at least it should be entertaining. Saints, 36-33.
Washington at Carolina (-4): Carolina’s getting it together, the Redskins are falling apart. Panthers, 20-13.
Chicago at New England (-3.5): The Bears’ bubble bursts with such intensity, it will affect weather patterns along the East Coast. Patriots, 26-14.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis (-8.5): The Colts don’t cover very often these days, but the Eagles are in very big trouble with Jeff Garcia -- who couldn’t cut it with the Browns, for god’s sake --at quarterback. Colts, 34-6.
N.Y. Giants (-3) at Tennessee: Battered and pointing fingers, the Giants are ripe for a road upset. And the Titans aren’t all that bad, either. Titans, 17-14.
Oakland at San Diego (-13.5): Hard to pick against San Diego here, even with that many points involved. Chargers, 35-7.
Green Bay at Seattle (-9): Brett Favre’s elbow will supposedly be healed enough for him to play, which should help the Packers keep it relatively close. Seahawks, 23-16.
Thanksgiving was a mixed bag for Uneducated Guess, when we were 2-1 overall, 1-2 against the spread. Last week, it was 9-7 overall, 8-7-1 against the spread. For the year, 56-47 overall, 44-51-8 against the spread.
Dave are you going to bet on your crystal ball, have you replaced the Niagara Falls crowd you've been writing about.
Why does this happen? No game broadcast? Why do the taxpayers pump millions of dollars into Wilson's pockets and end up with this shi%. Where is the communities equity stake in this team? We have to stop giving the rich white folks handouts and expect nothing in return. No more black outs and 25% community ownership of the Bills!
you shouldn't be inside anyways on a 60+ degree day in late November