You can't take samples of four properties to make any sort of valid conclusion about real estate prices in an area, especially when one of the properties in the "before" group sold for $45,000. If you really wanted to make a comparison using such a small set of data you would need much more information about the sellers, the condition of the properties and the nature of the sales. If there was really that much demand in the area, I would expect to see more of your sample properties selling for significantly above their asking prices, which is clearly not the case when two of your four sold for approximately 5% below asking.

This is interesting, but to draw any conclusions from it is optimistic and idealistic. Everyone knows real estate is all about location, location and location. In Buffalo this doesn't only mean the specific street, but the exact block of that street. A 2000 square foot house on Depew Avenue is worth considerably more than one on Huntington or Sterling and they are all within a 1/4 mile. What were these properties worth in 2003? Simply stating their selling and listing prices 4 years later and comparing that to Buffalo in general does not prove that Granite Works is responsible. Did their assessments go up that much? Take 4 houses on Highland Avenue between Delaware and Elmwood and 4 on Breckenridge (within 1/4 mile) and you'll see similar results, even if you compared them at the same time. I don't doubt that the development has had positive effects, but these statistics are useless in proving that.

This IS only a survey on Two Loft Buildings. But, from my experience of the downtown scene (let's go back since '98). Only recently have I seen people walking thier dogs along Main Streets pedestrian mall (something that would have been rare just 5 years ago), more people with baby strolers all over downtown (seems like more than before), Places such as the downtown Library, Waterfront, Coffee Shops and so on just seemed busier (especially on the weekends) than just a few years ago. SO, my point is..look at downtown as a whole with all the new lofts/condos popping up around. IT IS CHANGING for the better.

A six unit apartment building, with 15000 yearly fixed costs, with rental rates at $300 per month, expecting a 10% return, is worth about 60 grand. Raise the rents to $550, and the same building is worth about $250,000. Same building at 750 per unit, is worth 540,000. This same property type, being about 5000 square feet, at 109 per square foot, gives you 545,000 (the amount expected in the chart above).

This area has seen an increase in demand from 1.) medical complex 2.) people (for whatever reason) wanting to be downtown 3.) People looking to limit gas consumption (be closer to work). Landlords have responded by improving properties through increased investment (adding amenities that make units competitive).

Including the units mentioned above, I am aware of 120 units in the area, of which... (amazingly) only two are vacant. Such demand will only increase rents, and increase property values. Nit pick all you like, and find fault with the study, but question the law of supply and demand at your own (portfolio's) peril.

GDC I totally agree. When I started visiting downtown on a regular basis about 98 - 99 as well there had been a huge difference. It literally was dead on the weekends and everyone was a part of the office crowd at least by their looks. I remember the first time I saw a jogger roaming the streets of downtown. That was probably a couple months after the first new housing started to go in. I thought.. well that is new.

Now it really has continued to grow with people, families, tourists all over the place. I just rode through downtown last Saturday from my Apt in Allentown to the post office and there were many more people walking the streets than I thought I would see. There were tourists with luggage taking pictures around Niagara Square. Delaware avenue even down by church was downright busy with cars, people. Even Franklin street had a fair share of people wandering around and there isn't much to do on that street. I dunno certainly isn't he hustle / bustle that many people want but it is busier than I have ever seen it and continues to get better.

Great work Mr. Rondinelli, I'm sure this wasn't easy. It's great to see that the influx of people living downtown is having an impact on the economy. We can't forget about the impact that companies like New Era have had on the downtown. I'm not sure how many people Labbtt employs but it's comforting to see companies like this chose locations inside the city limits to set up shop.

To the issue of comparing 'same address sales', 450 and 452 Franklin were sold together, at the end of 2002 for a total of 130,000. The properties have been sold a number of times since. Most recently, the two sold for a combined amount of 384,000.

As far as 'cronyism and corruption' being involved in every transaction... I'm pretty sure the buyer at 130,000 got it at city auction, which anyone could have attended. Funny how ..."why would a guy buy that..." in 2002 turns into "only insiders get those deals" when looked at in hindsight.

As to other indicators, no parcel on Franklin has sold in over six months, the longest period since 1995. In my opinion that reflects owners being rewarded with higher returns on leasing/renting than what the market is prepared to pay for these buildings. When you see a building over 4000 square feet go for over $100 per square foot, you'd see a number of for sale signs pop up.