What are the odds the Bills have success this season? Well, the cynical answer is: not very likely at all.
It’s been 12 years since the Bills made the playoffs so it’s hard to blame a fan for becoming jaded. But cynicism isn’t the mood of the the Bills fan base right now. In fact, it’s the exact opposite.
If you listen to WGR or read the forums, Bills fans are nearly giddy about the upcoming season. Of course, it’s because the Bills actually had a productive off-season. They re-signed Stevie Johnson. They re-signed Fred Jackson. And they signed the biggest free agent on the market – Mario Williams.
As a result, many Bills fans are predicting the long and painful playoff drought will end this year. But let’s take a look at what the cold, hard, objective oddsmakers are saying about the likelihood the Bills will have a successful season. After all, they’re taking real risk with real money by putting up lines so their opinion should carry real weight.
Win Total Odds
A couple months ago, oddsmakers opened the over/under on the Bills regular season win total at 6.5. That line didn’t last long. As a result of more money being bet on the over, the line has shifted all the way up to 8. So, right now, the betting market is indicating the Bills are likely to finish the season at 8-8.
Odds to Win AFC East
What about the odds that the Bills win the AFC East? Well, that would be an upset. At Caesars sports book, the Bills are 9 to 1 to win the AFC East. The Patriots, of course, are heavily favored at 1 to 5 while the Jets are second favorite at 4 to 1. The Dolphins are likely to finish last as they’re odds to win the division are 10 to 1.
Odds to Make the Playoffs
The Bills are an underdog to make the playoffs as well. At 5 Dimes, one of the largest offshore sports books, the Bills are +170 to make the playoffs. That means if you were to bet $100 on the Bills to make the playoffs, you’d win $170. These odds imply the Bills have a 37% chance of making the playoffs.
Odds to Win the AFC Conference
Can you imagine if the Bills took us all back to the glory days and won the AFC Conference and made the Super Bowl? Yes, it’s hard to imagine. But if you think it can happen, you can get 23 to 1 odds at LVH sports book, one of the premier sports books in Las Vegas. Now, the odds vary from book to book, of course. In some places, the Bills are as low as 8 to 1 and at other shops, the Bills are as high as 40 to 1.
Odds to Win the Super Bowl
But let’s take a look at the odds on the Holy Grail. Yea, the Super Bowl. Right now, the Bills are 50 to 1 longshots to shock the world and win the Super Bowl. So, if you think the unthinkable can happen, you can turn a $100 bet into $5,000. Do you feel lucky?