2012 NHL Draft Preview

The buzz surrounding the 50th NHL Draft intensifies with each passing day, drawing teams closer to Friday, June 22 and Saturday, June 23 at the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

The Buffalo Sabres are proud owners of 4 picks in the top 44, including the 12th and 21st overall (From Nashville), followed by an additional 7-picks over the final six rounds.

Back in late February, Darcy Regier made two aggressive deadline moves that certainly look to be two of the most efficient he has made in 14-seasons as the Sabres general manager.

First, he traded top forward prospect Zack Kassian and Marc-Andre Gragnani for the Vancouver Canucks top center prospect Cody Hodgson and recently re-signed defenseman Alexander Sulzer.

Then, with the very last move of the 2011-2012 trade deadline Regier acquired the Nashville Predators 2012 1st-round pick in exchange for third line center Paul Gaustad who will become an unrestricted free-agent on July 1, 2012.

Sabres Picks Entering the Draft:

1^st round: #12
1^st round (from NSH): #21 (Acquired in exchange for Paul Gaustad and 2013 4^th round pick)

2^nd round: #42
2^nd round (from CAL): #44 (Acquired with Robyn Regehr for Chris Butler, Paul Byron, and Ales Kotalik)
3^rd round: #73

4^th round:  #103 (Traded to the NY Islanders for the rights to Christian Ehrhoff)
5^th round: #133
6^th round: #163
7^th round: #193
7^th round: (FLA from CHI): #204 (Acquired in exchange for negotiating rights to Steve Montador)

 

The Sabres front office has the ability to use the allure of prospects, picks and NHL-ready talent to compete with Tampa and Washington for the title of; team with the most potential to make draft day waves.

Tampa Bay was the only team with as many picks in the top-50 as the Sabres, until Lightning GM Steve Yzerman made quick use of two 2^nd round picks to acquire some crease help in Nashville back-up Anders Lindback. The Capitals have a draft high 11-picks overall.  

Desperate times call for desperate measures and the situation between the Lightning pipes was abysmal last season.  Former Sabres back-up and elder statesman Dwayne Roloson combined with Mathieu Garon to put up extremely pedestrian numbers.

The trade moved seven pieces in total; Tampa Bay sent 3^rd string goaltender Sebastian Caron, two 2012 2^nd round picks and a 2013 3^rd round pick for an up and coming Lindback, forward Kyle Wilson and a 2012 7^th round pick.

Tampa Bay Picks Entering the Draft:

1^st round: #10
1^st round (from DET): #19 (Acquired in exchange for Kyle Quincey, acquired from Colorado)

2^nd round (from MIN via SJ): #37 (In exchange for Dominic Moore and 2012 7^th round pick)*
2^nd round: #40

2^nd round (from PHI): #50 (Acquired in exchange for Andrej Meszaros)*

3^rd round: #71
4^th round: #101
5^th round: #131
6^th round: #161
7^th round: #191 (Traded with Dominic Moore to San Jose)

7^th round: #202 (Acquired from Nashville along with Lindback for two 2^nd round picks)*

(* Traded with a 2013 3^rd round pick and third string goalie Sebastian Caron in exchange for Nashville backup goaltender Anders Lindback, a 2012 7^th round pick and young forward Kyle Wilson.)

 

The event this weekend is to be hosted by the Pittsburgh Penguins, a franchise that has been one of the league's most notoriously efficient (lucky) drafters. [See first round draft history 2000-2006 at: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00007475.html]

The NHL draft process is much less predictable than the NFL evaluation process. In the NFL, top picks are expected to make an immediate impact. In hockey, the majority of the prospects drafted next weekend won't be playing for their prospective clubs for a few years to come, if at all.

In Toronto, Ontario from May 28^th - June 2^nd, 105 of the world's top hockey prospects gathered at the 2012 NHL Scouting Combine to prove their mental and physical readiness to representatives of the 30 NHL teams.

Along with a 20-minute interview session, every player had to withstand several intense physical tests and measurements. Including perhaps the most grueling performance examinations of them all the VO₂ max and Wingate tests.

The VO₂ max involves a stationary bike and a ventilation tube that reads the amount of oxygen inhaled and carbon dioxide exhaled throughout progressive spikes in the level of pedaling resistance. VO₂ max is reached when oxygen intake remains at a steady pace despite the increased intensity.

Top 10 Prospect Stamina (VO₂ Max) - From NHL.com

	VO2 MAX TEST DURATION
PLAYER	TEAM (LEAGUE)	MINUTES
1. Hampus Lindholm	Rogle JR. (SWE-JR.)	14:40
2. Ryan Murray	Everett (WHL)	13:32
3. Henrik Samuelsson	Edmonton (WHL)	13:25
4. Thomas Wilson	Plymouth (OHL)	13:11
Brian Hart	Exeter (HIGH-NH)	13:11
6. Martin Frk	Halifax (QMJHL)	12:53
7. Anthony Stolarz	Corpus Christi (NAHL)	12:46
8. Ben Johnson	Windsor (OHL)	12:41
9. Devin Shore	Whitby (OJHL)	12:37
10. Nail Yakupov	Sarnia (OHL)	12:25
Max Iafrate	Kitchener (OHL)	12:25
		AVERAGE   10:31

 

Designed to measure each athlete's capacity for physical exhaustion, the test has a reputation for provoking even the most conditioned individuals to need a bucket handy after attempting to conquer peak personal performance.

Top 10 Prospect Aerobic Fitness (VO₂ Max) - From NHL.com

	VO2 MAX - AEROBIC FITNESS
PLAYER	TEAM (LEAGUE)	(ml/kg/min)
1. Tomas Hertl	Slavia (CZREP)	65.7
Ryan Culkin	Quebec (QMJHL)	65.7
3. Brian Cooper	Fargo (USHL)	65.5
4. Sebastian Collberg	Frolunda (SWE)	64.4
5. Kevin Roy Lincoln	(USHL)	64.1
6. Anthony Stolarz	Corpus Christi (NAHL)	62.7
7. Patrick Sieloff	USA U-18 (USHL)	62.6
8. Thomas Wilson	Plymouth (OHL)	62.4
9. Ben Johnson	Windsor (OHL)	62.4
Mathew Dumba	Red Deer (WHL)	62.4
		AVERAGE   55.9

 

While the Wingate test also involves a stationary bike, it is a completely different test, designed to assess an athlete's physical explosiveness rather than endurance.

Top 10 Prospect Power Average (Wingate) - From NHL.com

	MEAN POWER OUTPUT
PLAYER	TEAM (LEAGUE)	Watts/kg3
1. Chris Calnan	Nobles (HIGH-MA)	11.4
2. Cristoval Nieves	Kent School (HIGH-CT)	11.3
3. Slater Koekkoek	Peterborough (OHL)	11.2
Daniel O'Regan	St. Sebastian School (HIGH-MA)	11.2
Thomas Wilson	Plymouth (OHL)	11.2
6. Mathew Dumba	Red Deer (WHL)	11
Matthew DeBlouw	Muskegon (USHL)	11
Ludwig Bystrom	Modo Jr. (SWE-JR.)	11
Mitchell Moroz	Edmonton (WHL)	11
10. Mark Jankowski	Stanstead College (HIGH-QC)	10.9
		AVERAGE   10.1

 

The Wingate may not cause as many athletes to go immediately scrambling for the bucket, but it is still an extremely demanding anaerobic gauge, where each athlete has to pedal for a set time at a maximum speed against a constant force.

	ANAEROBIC FITNESS
PLAYER	TEAM (LEAGUE)	Watts/kg
1. Alex Galchenyuk	Sarnia (OHL)	15.6
2. Matthew DeBlouw	Muskegon (USHL)	15
Matia Marcantuoni	Kitchner (OHL)	15
4. Thomas Wilson	Plymouth (OHL)	14.9
5. Chris Calnan	Nobles (HIGH-MA)	14.8
6. Ludwig Bystrom	Modo Jr. (SWE-JR.)	14.6
7. Cristoval Nieves	Kent School (HIGH-CT)	14.5
8. Brendan Gaunce	Belleville (OHL)	14.4
9. Sebastian Collberg	Frolunda (SWE)	14.4
10. Slater Koekkoek	Peterborough (OHL)	14.4
		AVERAGE   13.2

Top 10 Peak Power Output (Wingate) - From NHL.com

 

The evolution of the free-wheeling speed element in hockey over the past decade has made physically demanding tests like these important tools in the science of player evaluation. However, one of hockey's newer adages puts the combine testing into a clearer perspective; "You can't bench press the puck into the net."

So, while there is an emphasis on how well conditioned a prospect might be at this point of their young career, the on-ice talent and off-ice character are still at the core of each team's evaluation process. "It's like a soup," said Don Maloney, Phoenix Coyotes GM "There's 20 ingredients and you have to make sure how much emphasis you put in certain areas."

From a drafting standpoint the physically exhausting workouts can also exemplify how far a prospect is willing to push them self in order to achieve success.

"It's a really balanced draft, I think it's a really deep draft," said Kevin Devine, Sabres director of amateur scouting, "Whether it's a great draft up at the top, I'm not so sure."

With the amount of inconsistency that marred the Sabres most recent campaign Devine and director of professional scouting, Jon Christiano should be collaborating to evaluate players with more of that passionate drive to supplement the talent already on the roster.

They also, may not hesitate to take the best player available, despite the organizational depth at defense, "We don't want to pass over a [number] one or two defensemen, for what might turn out to be an average forward," added Devine.

Sabres Have Options

Package players/picks to get proven NHL talent

The Sabres most realistic fit to find a compatible trade partner would be with another franchise whose primary need is an NHL level defenseman. Buffalo has a surplus of talented blue-liners that could be used as the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade.

Although there is probably a right price for every player in the league, the defensemen that are as close to untouchable as it gets for the Sabres are; Tyler Myers, Christian Ehrhoff and Robyn Regehr.

Which leaves three names other clubs might consider a healthy foundation for a package deal; Brayden McNabb, Jordan Leopold and Andrej Sekera.

McNabb is a big, young, physical player and his upside gives him the highest market value of the three in possible consideration. However, what he has shown the Sabres so far in his young career is that he can hang with the heavy hitters. His steady progression throughout his initial time with the big club this season makes him a tough prospect for the Sabres to part with.

Leopold, who is in the last year of his contract, is a bona fide top-4 NHL defenseman. If the Sabres can find someone looking for veteran experience with some scoring punch on the backend, say Columbus, Leopold and two of the top 44 picks might just be enticing enough to pry Rick Nash from the Blue Jackets.

The defenseman most Sabres fans would like to see as a part of a trade is Sekera. Not in any way a knock on his ability as a player, but a testament to the amount of value the other two in consideration bring to the current roster.

Sekera is a proven NHL talent, but also may lack enough wow factor to be the focal point in a draft changing trade.

There are plenty of young prospects in the cupboard that could be dangled as trade bait as well including; the Sabres most recent 1^st round picks Joel Armia and Mark Pysyk.

Despite getting called up for parts of the 2011-2012 season, Marcus Foligno and Corey Tropp are still considered prospects for the Sabres and their NHL production will only help Regier market their value on the trade front.

In terms of NHL forward talent the team could move, there is one name that blue and gold faithful repeatedly mutter - Derek Roy.

Roy is maligned in Buffalo much like Richards and Carter became in Philly. His party boy reputation and on ice demeanor majorly contribute to questions surrounding his dedication. Although there is a large contingency of fans who feel this way, the franchise has continually backed him.

In reality Roy has been one of the most productive Sabres in his 8-seasons, excluding last season, his worst statistically as a professional.

Derek Roy Career Statistics - via HockeyDB.com

Year	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM	+/-
2003-04	Buffalo Sabres	49	9	10	19	12	-8
2005-06	Buffalo Sabres	70	18	28	46	57	1
2006-07	Buffalo Sabres	75	21	42	63	60	37
2007-08	Buffalo Sabres	78	32	49	81	46	13
2008-09	Buffalo Sabres	82	28	42	70	38	-5
2009-10	Buffalo Sabres	80	26	43	69	48	9
2010-11	Buffalo Sabres	35	10	25	35	16	-1
2011-12	Buffalo Sabres	80	17	27	44	54	-7
TOTALS		549	161	266	427	331	39

 

In the last year of his deal, Roy may contain the right mix of star power and proven production to be the centerpiece of a deal. However, it wouldn't come as a surprise if he thrived in his new digs. When his game is going, Roy's hands are among the silkiest in the league and he possesses elite playmaking vision.

NHL talent the Sabres could target in a trade:

In any trade scenario there is a multitude of factors that must be considered. From the fit of the players with the franchise, to the contractual stipulations, even the underlying motivation for each franchise to move a specific player must be taken into account.

Regardless, if the right opportunity arises, the Sabres should be targeting a scoring forward that will come in and immediately contribute significantly in the top-6.

Aforementioned Rick Nash has been mentioned in trade rumors for the past few seasons. As the captain and foundation of a struggling Columbus franchise he will be tough to attain.

The Blue Jackets are rebuilding and getting younger.  At the deadline they dealt for young defenseman Jack Johnson from Los Angeles. Up front they have Ryan Johansen and Cam Atkinson, all under the age 25 and looking like great pieces to build on.

Unfortunately for the Sabres, Nash will be highly sought after and it will most likely take a mega-deal to convince the Blue Jackets to part with him.

The right wing is a big, fast, power forward that the Sabres could pair with either one of their young centers and infuse 40-goal potential into their lineup. With Nash and Vanek on their roster the Sabres would have two absolute weapons that would cause matchup problems for any defensive unit in the league.

There are infinite reasons why Patrick Kane would be a great fit for the Sabres to acquire. For starters his talent was cultivated in rinks all over this very city. Then there's the $2.68 million Hamburg waterfront home he recently purchased.

His playing resume includes; 369-points over 5-seasons with the Blackhawks, a Stanley Cup overtime winner and Olympic silver medal.

From a marketing standpoint, Kane has a legion of family and friends who would love nothing more than to see #88 buzzing around the First Niagara Center and help Buffalo hoist its first ever Stanley Cup.

The Blackhawks motivation for moving him would lie strictly in the questions about his off-ice maturity and their cap situation. According to capgeek.com the Blackhawks are loaded with long-term contracts and only have $8.8 million of cap space to maneuver with this offseason.

Moving Kane's $6.3 million for a young defenseman and a couple picks in the top 44 might help them alleviate some of that burden.

In measuring a deal for Kane the Sabres brass needs to consider whether the rumors of character issues, off the ice, have contributed to a down season on the ice in Chicago.

Bobby Ryan of the Anaheim Ducks is one of the NHL's most dynamic young players. He was made available by the Ducks at the 2011 trade deadline, but after firing head coach, Randy Carlyle the team responded and Ryan was taken off the market.

It has been rumored that Ryan is back on the trade market this summer and the Ducks are looking for defensive help, a prospect and a high pick in return.

Nabbing Ryan would take a lot of moxie from Regier, but in the long run would greatly improve the current roster and infuse some of the grit and intensity the Sabres scouts are scouring the planet for.

Calgary Flames right wing Jarome Iginla is exactly the kind of leader the Sabres need. Iginla could come in and take over the captaincy without a hitch. He is a 15-year veteran who is respected league-wide for his work ethic and all around ability.

Although he is in the twilight of his career at 34, Iginla still has a few good years left in the tank and may be willing to move out of his back yard in order to get a taste of the Cup.

The Edmonton, Alberta native is also in the final year of his contract and has a connection in Buffalo with Robyn Regehr who he played alongside in Calgary for 11-seasons. Iginla would be an absolute steal for the Sabres no matter what the price, but he has been a Flame his entire career and has a no trade clause in his contract, so the odds for him to be available are very slim.

Package picks to move up and select a highly touted prospect

According to most of the drafting experts, this year's draft has an extremely limited number of immediate impact players.

A weak top end combined with the origin of the players that are rated highly, make this option the least likely of any, but with Regier's renewed sense of aggression there is certainly an opportunity for him to go against the norm and seek a top-prospect, should the scouting department feel they are worth moving up.

 

Nail Yakupov - Right Wing - 5'11" - 190 lbs - Left Shot: Leading the way in this year's draft class, Yakupov is the top ranked player on NHL Central Scouting's final ranking. The Nizhnekamsk, Russia native has played two seasons for the Ontario Hockey League's, Sarnia Sting posting 170-points in 107-games. He also netted 9-points in 7-games at the 2012 World Junior Championship.

The 18-year old's explosiveness has spawned comparisons to all-time Russian great Pavel Bure, for his ability to make a game-changing play at any time.

The only question about his first overall status has little to do with his ability and lie more with the needs of the current pick holder. The Edmonton Oilers have serious concerns on defense and between the pipes, so if a team can piece together a lucrative enough package, Yakupov may find himself donning an unexpected uniform come Friday evening.

The Sabres certainly have the ability to make a move like that happen, but the price might be too high for a player who is the only prospect in the draft viewed as a blue chipper.

 

 

Alex Galchenyuk - Center - 6'1" - 185 lbs. - Left Shot: Galchenyuk missed nearly all of the 2011-2012 season with the OHL's Sarnia Sting after tearing his ACL in a preseason game. The big, strong, two-way center did return for the final two regular season and six playoff games, but only registered 2-goals and 2-assists over those 8-games.

In his rookie season with the Sting, the Wisconsin native scored 31-goals and 52-assists in 68-games in 2010-2011. Despite the lack of proven production, Galchenyuk proved enough in his first season and has enough physical tools to garner top-10 consideration. In years past there is a chance the injury concerns may have allowed Galchenyuk to slip to the Sabres at #12, but with the lack of elite forward prospects, Regier will likely need to move up to get his hands on @AGally94 on twitter.

 

Mikhail Grigorenko - Center - 6'3" - 200 lbs. - Left Shot: Although the big Russian is listed as a center, he played both center and wing for the Quebec Ramparts of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League in 2011-2012. In his first season in major junior, Grigorenko posted 85-points in 59-games and added 10-points in 11-playoff games.

As the top line center for the Silver Medal runner-up Russian team at the 2012 World Juniors, Grigorenko impressed scouts with his vision and physical presence, despite only tallying 5-points in 6-games.

Questions surrounding Grigorekno are concentrated around his effort and consistency. When the Sabres speak of players they won't move up to get, Grigorenko might fight that bill, simply because of those doubts. At the same time, he has all the tools to be a top playmaking center prospect so depending on how far he might fall there's no telling whether the Sabres may be compelled to jump up a few spots to take a chance on him.

 

Filip Forsberg - Left Wing - 6'1" - 176 lbs. - Right Shot: The 17-year old Swede is a young talented forward with a ton of developing left to do. His ceiling is as high as anyone in the draft considering his age and size.

Forsberg has played for Leksand in the Swedish Elite league for the last two seasons where he has registered 18-points in 53-games. Because of his age and talent level, Forsberg also skated for both the Swedish Under-18 team and the Under-20 team.

If the Sabres want to move up it would be with the intentions of grabbing an immediate impact player. Forsberg seems to be a few years from his NHL debut, but his talent and upside are undeniable. If all else fails and his measurables are what the scouting department thinks Buffalo needs there is plenty of promise for this young winger.

Ryan Murray - Defenseman - 6'0" - 185 lbs. - Left Shot: Possibly the most exciting prospect in the draft, the Everett Silvertips d-man has been rumored to be the player Edmonton is targeting with the 1^st overall pick instead of Yakupov.

Despite being slowed early in the season by an ankle injury, Murray still posted 31-points in 46-games. In 3-seasons with the Silvertips the smooth defenseman has drawn comparisons to the smooth skating and all-time great Scott Niedermayer and has produced 104-points in 168-career games in the WHL.

Murray is considered the top defenseman in the draft and if the Sabres believe they can move NHL talent defensemen in exchange for scoring, moving up to take Murray would make sense, because he is as NHL ready as any player in this draft class.

Hold onto the current picks and draft for the future

History would suggest that the most likely option will be that the Sabres will sit tight and stock pile prospects to develop for the future of the franchise. In that case it is much tougher to predict what the first 11-picks may look like, but going through central scouting and evaluating each teams needs, these are the players the Sabres would dream of seeing still available when they are on the clock:

Teuvo Teravainen - A late rising prospect out of Finland Teravainen played 40-games for Jokerit in the Finnish SM-Liiga as a 17-year old. He is the 2^nd ranked European skater on Central Scouting's final ranks. Teravainen's torrid rise up the prospect rankings probably means he won't be there when the Sabres pick, but if he is it is likely they would jump at the opportunity to nab another first round Fin.

Radek Faksa - The 18-year old center is 6-feet 3-inches, 203-pounds and registered 67-points in 62-games for the Kitchener Rangers in the OHL last season. The Opava, Czech Republic native has the size and upside for the Sabres to consider him if he falls to them at #12.

Zemgus Girgensons - The 6'2" 198 lbs. Liga, Latvia native played for the Dubuque Fighting Saints in the USHL this past season. A big center who registered 55-points in 49-games, Girgensons is said to have an in your face style of play that the Sabres will be looking for at this pick.

Nicholas Kerdiles - The big center from Irvine, California led the WJC U-18 team in scoring in 2012 and plays for the US National Team Development Program. The 6'1", 196 lbs. forward fits the mold of prospect the Sabres will look to target with the 12^th pick.

If they can't find a partner to pair with the 21^st pick, the Sabres may be inclined to look for the eventual heir apparent to Ryan Miller. Despite the thin crop of goaltenders, there are a few worth a first round grade and could immediately come into Rochester and provide healthy competition for incumbent starter and Amherst native, David Leggio for the next few seasons:

Malcolm Subban  - The younger brother of the Montreal Canadiens PK Subban, Malcolm is the top rated goalie in this draft. He has played for the Belleville Bulls of the OHL for the past two seasons and posted his best numbers in 2011-2012; 2.50 goals against average, .923% save percentage with 3-shutouts.

Andrei Vasilevski - The 17-year old has the body type and athleticism to be an elite goalie at the NHL level. At 6'3" Vasilevski has sparkled in his time with the Russian WJC U-18 team and Russian Minor Hockey League. Questions about his ability to maintain focus under pressure situations leave him slotted behind Subban for the top goalie in this year's draft.

Oscar Dansk - Dansk is a Swedish netminder who has played both internationally and nationally in the states. He moved to Minnesota to play for the renowned Shattuck St. Mary's program. The third ranked goalie in this year's draft, Dansk's consistency might give him the upper hand on Vasilevski, due to doubts about his mental toughness.

Regardless of what happens in front of them in this year's draft, the Sabres have put themselves into a position of strength by stockpiling picks. What they decide to do with those picks should have an immediate effect on the face of this franchise moving forward.

A player to keep an eye on throughout the draft process is Buffalo native Dylan Blujus who played last season for the Brampton Battalion of the OHL. He is a big talented defenseman ranked in Central Scouting's top-100. He likens his game to that of Tyler Myers and if he is still sitting on the board in the second round the Sabres might want to take a chance on a player who grew up dreaming of playing in the blue and gold.