It's a common refrain on Buffalo Rising: "Let's get a supermarket downtown." Commenters have suggested a grocery store for Main Place Mall, M&T Bank parking lots, the upper level of the DL&W Terminal, the AM&As Department Store and elsewhere. Wishful thinking. While developers have added 700 residential units downtown over the past decade, and more are planned, it's not enough to warrant a new grocery store.
There isn't an agreed upon number of residential units needed to support a full-scale grocery store. A University of Washington study calculated the Seattle region averages 2,500 to 4,800 people per "grocery store." Data from Food Marketing Institute and Census figures show that there is an average of 8,800 residents per supermarket nationwide. Income, residential density and mobility also play a role.
It should be noted that chain grocery stores in many areas of the country are not nearly as large as WNY's Tops and Wegmans behemoths. 46,000 sq.ft is the national average while Wegmans' newest stores are 130,000 sq.ft.
Another rule of thumb is 2.5 to 5 square feet of grocery store selling space per capita. Downtown's estimated 3,300 residents can support 8,250 to 16,500 sq.ft. of grocery space, about the size of Wegmans' produce and bakery sections. Include nearby neighborhoods and the market potential increases. So does the inclusion of downtown workers grabbing groceries on their way into work or heading home, workers eating in a full-service store for lunch, and visitors staying in nearby hotels.
Downtown presents a special challenge and stores are nearly never as large as their suburban counterparts. Downtown real estate is expensive, overhead is high and parking is an issue. Considering those factors, a downtown grocery store is likely to be smaller than those in other neighborhoods or on a suburban property.
While Tops and Wegmans have not opened 'downtown' stores, grocers elsewhere have created models suitable for urban sites. Trader Joe's, Safeway, Whole Foods and others all have downtown stores, some on multiple levels with attached, stacked parking. Walmart is planning stand-alone grocery stores and is looking at both city and suburban locations.
Downtown's current residents aren't starving. They utilize grocery stores one or more miles away including the Tops on Niagara Street or the Wegmans or Tops on Amherst Street. They also patronize a number of retailers that have opened in recent years including City Wine Merchant, Washington Market, and Wilson Farms.
For a supermarket to succeed, it needs a nearby household base to draw from every day of the week. Buffalo is not there yet.
Photos: Downtown supermarkets in Portland, Oregon






I think Buffalo is there, but it doesn't need to be a Whole Foods or a Trader Joe's, which appeal to a more niche market. Dash's is the way to go.
With all due respect, AKBuffalo, your approach is incredibly narrow-minded. Have you traveled to ANY developed/developing city within the past five years? Whole Foods and Trader Joes are COMMONPLACE, Whole Foods a little more so. Whole Foods may be guilty of being overpriced in some areas, but both Trader Joes AND Whole Foods both have their own branded products that put Wegmans to shame (in terms of their selections and creativity), for a price that's on par with Wegmans. In my experience, there is NOTHING niche about either. I shop at both regularly. Buffalo needs to know when it's okay to modernize, and when it's okay to be nostalgic and historical. Trader Joes would be welcomed by ALL in downtown Buffalo. It would also serve as a primer for other business around it.
Thanks for letting me know you're so well-traveled. I'm sorry I don't prefer Whole Foods or Trader Joe's. I was expressing an opinion that I didn't realize someone as well-traveled as you would consider so offensive. I must have an outdated view of modern civilization to have such a different preference than you, such a well-traveled individual. With all due respect, give me a break.
You don't know what you are talking about. People in Chicago would kill for you so called old fashioned Wegmans.
While TJs and WFs are very common in other parts of the country, the closest one of either to Buffalo is in Rochester. Most won't drive that far but some do. If there was one ANYWHERE in the Buffalo area, it would be a draw for the entire region.
Here in Atlanta, people who have a preference for either brand will travel 20-30 miles to get to the nearest TJs or 10-15 miles to WFs, even if there are a half dozen other traditional supermarket chains within 2-3 miles of their own home. My sister in VA makes a point of shopping at TJs every time she visits because they don't have one anywhere near her (they carry several wines at prices that she can't get anywhere else).
Ellzy... "Trader Joes AND Whole Foods both have their own branded products that put Wegmans to shame (in terms of their selections and creativity), for a price that's on par with Wegmans."
I disagree with this statement. It's just not true.
Is lower Niagara Street downtown (at the 190 ramp)? If you answered yes, then we have a supermarket downtown.