One of my problems with the City of Buffalo is the lack of vibrancy Downtown. Central Business Districts are the hearts of their metro areas. When you think of Chicago, New York, and Toronto you think of their Downtowns. That same area is viewed by many visitors to Buffalo as well. It's that view that lands us in the newspapers for being an area of depression.
So to figure out why there is a lack of vibrancy, I decided to pull up some simple demographic data.
My self-questioning resulted in comparing a series of cities within the US. I compared the population density of downtown areas or Central Business Districts to their Metropolitan areas. Using city density would not be accurate because cities have urbanized zones outside its borders in many cases. Instead, I made the supposition that great metropolises have populated downtowns. I was pretty much correct.
I selected cities within the region of Buffalo. Including places like Los Angeles and Atlanta might not give accurate results. Clearly people can contend what counts as the region.
^Data is from City-Data. They provide downtown populations and areas. I would have included Indianapolis and Rochester, but I had trouble finding the square footage of their downtowns.
For the most part, the cities people generally view as depressing have low population densities in their downtown area. Of course there are exceptions, such as Hartford. Since I don't know enough about Hartford, I can't say why its downtown density is low. On this chart, Buffalo is in the lower third of cities shown here. The cities people associate with success are at the top.
However, population alone isn't a good indicator as to the success of a downtown, city, or metropolis. Because of this, I put a focus on GDP output of a metropolis in comparison to its population density.
^Data is from City-Data and www.bea.gov/index.htm
Clearly a fair way of assessing the state of the economy for a metro area is by using GDP per capita. As we can see here, Buffalo is at the bottom. Here again, the typical cities we associate with success are at the top.
Some opinions I have about the data:
It seems like strong downtown cores equal success. When cities such as Detroit, Cleveland, and Buffalo were the envied, it's pretty obvious they probably had denser Central Business Districts.
A couple of Rust Belt cities stuck out. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis were two metro areas that varied between having decently dense CBDs and higher GDP per capita in the metro. I think these may be fair indicators that they are having success. Clearly these two cities are bright spots in the Midwest.
The reason for all of this now is to ask what it means to Buffalo. The City is low in both of these charts. It doesn't have a sizeable CBD, and its GDP output is at the bottom of the regional pack. I think from these two indicators, a plan could be made for the Queen City.
Quite simply, Buffalo needs to bring people Downtown to live. Being in a central location will support the Central Business District. The idea is that a restaurant's bread and butter may be the people who live nearby, but its profits come from the out of CBD visits. It's what could keep these businesses afloat. It would significantly reduce the dismal feel of Downtown. Also, there needs to be enticing residences for the Middle class and young professionals. These residences need to be near public transit, such as the Metro Rail. Bringing people into Downtown to live will increase and create new business.
From the data, an acceptable Downtown to Metro Density ratio could be 12 to 1. Chicago is at 12.68. At 12:1, the amount of people living Downtown should be 5705. It's currently 1567.
The ideas that many have for Downtown are meaningless, unless there are people living there. It's logic. There will not be a successful supermarket or new mass transit Downtown, unless there are more people. The waterfront won't even be successful without this void being filled.
What needs to happen is a conversion of unsuccessful commercial buildings into mixed use, or completely residential buildings. For example, the Main Place Mall would have considerable success if it had residences within the tower. That is a prime location to live.
Final thought:
Downtowns are the hearts of metro areas. The urbanized areas of metro areas are the appendages. When there is heart failure, we all fail. Bringing people to live Downtown is the real catalyst for success in the Queen City.





Hopefully when HSBC leaves their building and Class B and C upgrade into the cheap class a space. It will leave a bunch of older building open to convert to residental or mixed use.
The expanding medical sector and Larkin district will also drive downtown living for those that desire that life style.